Now and then across the centuries, powerful voices have warned that human activity would overwhelm the earth's resources.现在，然后横跨世纪，强大的声音警告说，人类活动将压倒地球的资源。 The Cassandras always proved wrong.该cassandras始终证明是错误的。 Each time, there were new resources to discover, new technologies to propel growth.每一次，有新的资源发现，新技术，推进增长。

Today the old fears are back.今天，旧的恐惧又回来了！

Although a Malthusian catastrophe is not at hand, the resource constraints foreseen by the Club of Rome are more evident today than at any time since the 1972 publication of the think tank's famous book, "The Limits of Growth."虽然马尔萨斯的灾难是不是在另一方面，资源的限制所预见的罗马俱乐部是更为明显，今天比在任何时间，自1972年出版的智囊团的著名著作“的界限增长” 。 Steady increases in the prices for oil, wheat, copper and other commodities -- some of which have set record highs this month -- are signs of a lasting shift in demand as yet unmatched by rising supply.稳步上升，在价格，石油，小麦，铜和其他商品-其中一些已创历史新高，这一个月-的迹象，持久的转变，需求尚未无与伦比的上升，供应。

As the world grows more populous -- the United Nations projects eight billion people by 2025, up from 6.6 billion today -- it also is growing more prosperous.作为世界上人口增长，更多的-联合国项目8 0.0亿人，到2 025年，从6 6.0亿今天-它也日益繁荣。 The average person is consuming more food, water, metal and power.一般人是消费更多的食物，水，金属和力量。 Growing numbers of China's 1.3 billion people and India's 1.1 billion are stepping up to the middle class, adopting the high-protein diets, gasoline-fueled transport and electric gadgets that developed nations enjoy.越来越多的中国的十三亿人民和印度的一一〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇顷加紧向中产阶层，采用高蛋白质饮食，汽油为燃料的运输和电动工具，发达国家享受。

The result is that demand for resources has soared.结果是对资源的需求激增。 If supplies don't keep pace, prices are likely to climb further, economic growth in rich and poor nations alike could suffer, and some fear violent conflicts could ensue.如果供应没有跟上，价格可能会进一步上升，经济增长在富国和穷国都可能遭受，和有些人担心暴力冲突可能会接踵而至。

Some of the resources now in great demand have no substitutes.一些资源现在在需求大，有没有替代品。 In the 18th century, England responded to dwindling timber supplies by shifting to abundant coal.在十八世纪，英国的回应越来越少，木材供应转移到丰富的煤炭。 But there can be no such replacement for arable land and fresh water.但不可能有这样的替代耕地和淡水。

The need to curb global warming limits the usefulness of some resources -- coal, for one, which emits greenhouse gases that most scientists say contribute to climate change.需要以遏止全球气候变暖，限制了一些有用的资源-煤，为一，排放的温室气体，大多数科学家说，有助于气候变化。 Soaring food consumption stresses the existing stock of arable land and fresh water.飙升的食品消费强调，在现有的耕地和淡水。

"We're living in an era where the technologies that have empowered high living standards and 80-year life expectancies in the rich world are now for almost everybody," says economist Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute, which focuses on sustainable development with an emphasis on the world's poor. “我们正生活在一个时代的技术赋予较高的生活水准和80年的预期寿命在富有的世界，现在几乎每一个人，说： ”经济学家杰弗里萨克斯，主任，哥伦比亚大学地球研究所，着重于可持续发展重点是世界上的穷人。 "What this means is that not only do we have a very large amount of economic activity right now, but we have pent-up potential for vast increases [in economic activity] as well." “这意味着什么，就是我们不仅有一个非常大量的经济活动的权利，现在，但我们已积压了潜力巨大的增加， [在经济活动] ，以及” 。 The world cannot sustain that level of growth, he contends, without new technologies.世界各国不能维持这个增长水平，他争辩，没有新技术。

Americans already are grappling with higher energy and food prices.美国人已经在处理更高的能源和食品价格。 Although crude prices have dropped in recent days, there's a growing consensus among policy makers and industry executives that this isn't just a temporary surge in prices.虽然原油价格已下跌，在最近几天，有越来越多的共识之间的决策者和业界主管指出，这不仅是一个临时的激增价格。 Some of these experts, but not all of them, foresee a long-term upward shift in prices for oil and other commodities.一些这些专家，但不是所有的他们，预见到长远的向上转移，在油价和其他商品。

Today's dire predictions could prove just as misguided as yesteryear's.今天的可怕的预言可以证明，正如误导，作为昔日的。

"Clearly we'll have more and more problems, as more and more [people] are going to be richer and richer, using more and more stuff," says Bjorn Lomborg, a Danish statistician who argues that the global-warming problem is overblown. “显然，我们将有越来越多的问题，随着越来越多的[人民]将会更加丰富和更丰富的，使用更多的东西，说： ”比约恩隆姆博格，丹麦统计学家谁认为，全球气候变暖问题是夸大。 "But smartness will outweigh the extra resource use." “但smartness将得不偿失额外的资源使用” 。

Some constraints might disappear with greater global cooperation.一些制约因素可能会消失，有更大的全球性的合作。 Where some countries face scarcity, others have bountiful supplies of resources.如一些国家面临的匮乏，其他用品富饶的资源。 New seed varieties and better irrigation techniques could open up arid regions to cultivation that today are only suitable as hardscrabble pasture; technological breakthroughs, like cheaper desalination or efficient ways to transmit electricity from unpopulated areas rich with sunlight or wind, could brighten the outlook.新的种子品种和更好的灌溉技术可以开放干旱地区栽培，今天只适合作为hardscrabble牧场;技术突破，如便宜的海水化淡的或有效的方式传送电力从无人地区丰富的阳光或风，可以照亮前景。

In the past, economic forces spurred solutions.在过去，经济力量带动的解决办法。 Scarcity of resource led to higher prices, and higher prices eventually led to conservation and innovation.稀缺的资源导致更高的价格，以及较高的价格，最终导致了养护和创新。 Whale oil was a popular source of lighting in the 19th century.鲸鱼油是一个受欢迎的来源，照明，在19世纪。 Prices soared in the middle of the century, and people sought other ways to fuel lamps.价格大涨，在本世纪中叶，和人民寻求其他方式来燃油灯。 In 1846, Abraham Gesner began developing kerosene, a cleaner-burning alternative.于1846年，石礼谦gesner开始发展煤油，一个更清洁燃烧的办法。 By the end of the century, whale oil cost less than it did in 1831.由本世纪结束时，鲸油成本低于它在1831年。

A similar pattern could unfold again.类似的模式，可以开展一次。 But economic forces alone may not be able to fix the problems this time around.不过，经济力量本身未必能解决问题，这一次。 Societies as different as the US and China face stiff political resistance to boosting water prices to encourage efficient use, particularly from farmers.由于不同的社团，作为美国和中国面临着激烈的政治阻力，以提高水的价格，以鼓励使用效率，特别是来自农民。 When resources such as water are shared across borders, establishing a pricing framework can be thorny.当资源，例如水是共同跨越边界，建立一个定价框架，可以棘手。 And in many developing nations, food-subsidy programs make it less likely that rising prices will spur change.而且在许多发展中国家，食品补贴计划，使不太可能价格上涨将刺激改变。

This troubles some economists who used to be skeptical of the premise of "The Limits to Growth."这个麻烦，一些经济学家谁用怀疑的前提下“增长的极限” 。 As a young economist 30 years ago, Joseph Stiglitz said flatly: "There is not a persuasive case to be made that we face a problem from the exhaustion of our resources in the short or medium run."作为一个年轻的经济学家在30年前，约瑟夫斯蒂格利茨说，断然说： “有是不是一个有说服力的案件作出我们所面对的一个问题，从用尽我们的资源在短期或中运行” 。

Today, the Nobel laureate is concerned that oil is underpriced relative to the cost of carbon emissions, and that key resources such as water are often provided free.今天，这位诺贝尔和平奖得主关注的是，石油是过低的相对成本碳排放量，以及关键资源，例如水往往是免费提供。 "In the absence of market signals, there's no way the market will solve these problems," he says. “在缺乏市场信号，有没有办法市场将解决这些问题， ”他说。 "How do we make people who have gotten something for free start paying for it? That's really hard. If our patterns of living, our patterns of consumption are imitated, as others are striving to do, the world probably is not viable." “我们如何使人们谁得到了一些免费的开始付出代价呢？这是真的很难，如果我们的模式生活，我们的消费模式是模仿，正如其他人都在努力这样做，世界上大概是行不通的” 。

Dennis Meadows, one of the authors of "The Limits to Growth," says the book was too optimistic in one respect.丹尼斯草甸，作者之一的“增长的极限，说： ”这本书过于乐观，在一个方面。 The authors assumed that if humans stopped harming the environment, it would recover slowly.作者假设，如果人类停止破坏环境，它将恢复缓慢。 Today, he says, some climate-change models suggest that once tipping points are passed, environmental catastrophe may be inevitable even "if you quit damaging the environment."今天，他说，一些气候变化模型显示，一旦小费点获得通过，环境灾难，可能是不可避免的，甚至“如果你退出破坏环境” 。

One danger is that governments, rather than searching for global solutions to resource constraints, will concentrate on grabbing share.一个危险的是，各国政府，而不是寻找解决方案，全球资源的限制，将会集中在抢占份额。

China has been funding development in Africa, a move some US officials see as a way for it to gain access to timber, oil and other resources.中国一直在资金，非洲的发展，提出一些美国官员见的一种方式，为它获取木材，石油和其他资源。 India, once a staunch supporter of the democracy movement in military-run Myanmar, has inked trade agreements with the natural-resource rich country.印度，曾经的坚定支持者，民主运动在军事国营缅甸，已经签署了贸易协定与自然资源丰富的国家。 The US, European Union, Russia and China are all vying for the favor of natural-gas-abundant countries in politically unstable Central Asia.美国，欧洲联盟，俄罗斯和中国都是争夺的欢心，自然气体丰富的国家在政治上不稳定的中亚地区。

Competition for resources can get ugly.对资源的竞争可以得到难看。 A record drought in the Southeast intensified a dispute between Alabama, Georgia and Florida over water from a federal reservoir outside Atlanta.创纪录的干旱，东南加大之间的纠纷，阿拉巴马州，乔治亚州和佛罗里达州的水从一个联邦水库以外的亚特兰大。 A long-running fight over rights to the Cauvery River between the Indian states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu led to 25 deaths in 1991.长时间运行的争权利向cauvery河之间的印度国家卡纳塔克邦和泰米尔纳德邦，导致25人死亡，在1991年。

Economists Edward Miguel of the University of California at Berkeley and Shanker Satyanath and Ernest Sergenti of New York University have found that declines in rainfall are associated with civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa.经济学家爱德华米格尔的加州大学伯克利分校和尚克尔satyanath和欧内斯特瑟氏泰勒新的纽约大学发现，跌幅在雨量相关的与民间的冲突在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。 Sierra Leone, for example, which saw a sharp drop in rainfall in 1990, plunged into civil war in 1991.塞拉利昂，例如，看到一个大幅下降，雨量在1990年，陷入内战于1991年。

A Car for Every Household 汽车为每家每户

The rise of China and India already has changed the world economy in lasting ways, from the flows of global capital to the location of manufacturing.在中国和印度的崛起已经改变了世界经济的持久的方法，从流动的全球资本向制造业的位置。 But they remain poor societies with growing appetites.但他们仍然很差，与社会日益增长的胃口。

Nagpur in central India once was known as one of the greenest metropolises in the country.那格浦尔在印度中部一旦被称为一对绿的大都市在该国。 Over the past decade, Nagpur, now one of at least 40 Indian cities with more than a million people, has grown to roughly 2.5 million from 1.7 million.在过去十年里，那格浦尔，现在之一，至少40名印度城市与100多万人，已增加至大约250万美元从170万美元。 Local roads have turned into a mess of honking cars, motorbikes and wandering livestock under a thick soup of foul air.区内道路已变成一团糟honking汽车，摩托车和流浪牲畜下了厚厚的汤臭的空气。

"Sometimes if I see something I like, I just buy it," says Sapan Gajbe, 32 years old, a dentist shopping for an air conditioner at Nagpur's Big Bazaar mall. “有时，如果我看到一些我喜欢，我只是买，说： ”萨班gajbe ， 32岁，牙医购物为一空调器在那格浦尔的大集市商场。 A month earlier, he bought his first car, a $9,000 Maruti Zen compact.一个月前，他买了他的第一辆车，九〇 〇 〇美元之禅紧凑。

In 2005, China had 15 passenger cars for every 1,000 people, close to the 13 cars per 1,000 that Japan had in 1963. 2005年，中国有15客车每1000人，接近13车每1000名，日本已在1963年。 Today, Japan has 447 passenger cars per 1,000 residents, 57 million in all.今天，日本已经有447名乘客的车每1000个居民， 57000000在所有。 If China ever reaches that point, it would have 572 million cars -- 70 million shy of the number of cars in the entire world today.如果中国任何时候都达到这一点，将有5.72亿辆-7 0000000害羞的车辆数目在整个世界的今天。

China consumes 7.9 million barrels of oil a day.中国消费790.0万桶石油的一天。 The US, with less than one quarter as many people, consumes 20.7 million barrels.美国，不到四分之一，因为有很多人，消耗2070.0万桶。 "Demand will be going up, but it will be constrained by supply," ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer James Mulva has told analysts. “需求将持续上升，但是它会受到限制供应， ”康菲石油公司首席执行干事詹姆斯mulva已告诉分析师。 "I don't think we are going to see the supply going over 100 million barrels a day, and the reason is: Where is all that going to come from?" “我不认为我们将看到供应将会超过100万桶， 1天，原因是：那里是所有前往从何而来？ ”

Says Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel: "The idea that we might have to move on to other sources of energy -- you don't have to buy into the Club of Rome agenda for that."说，哈佛经济学家杰弗里弗兰克尔： “我们的构想，我们有可能提出对其他的能源来源-你不须要购买到罗马俱乐部的议程为” 。 The world can adjust to dwindling oil production by becoming more energy efficient and by moving to nuclear, wind and solar power, he says, although such transitions can be slow and costly.世界上可以调整，以减少石油产量越来越能源效率和移动核，风能和太阳能发电，他说，虽然这种转变可以是缓慢和费用昂贵。

Global Thirst 全球渴

There are no substitutes for water, no easy alternatives to simple conservation.有没有替代水，不容易替代简单的养护。 Despite advances, desalination remains costly and energy intensive.尽管进展，海水化淡的仍然是昂贵和能源密集。 Throughout the world, water is often priced too low.整个世界，水是经常的价格太低了。 Farmers, the biggest users, pay less than others, if they pay at all.农民，最大的用户，支付少于他人，如果他们付钱所有。

In California, the subsidized rates for farmers have become a contentious political issue.在加利福尼亚州，补贴利率为农民，已成为一个有争议的政治问题。 Chinese farmers receive water at next to no cost, accounting for 65% of all water used in the country.中国农民获得水在旁边的任何费用，占65 ％的水用于所有在该国。

In Pondhe, an Indian village of about 1,000 on a barren plateau east of Mumbai, water wasn't a problem until the 1970s, when farmers began using diesel-powered pumps to transport water farther and faster.在pondhe ，印度村约1000对一个荒芜的高原以东的孟买，水是不是一个问题，直到20世纪70年代，当农民开始使用柴油动力水泵运输水更远，速度更快。 Local wells used to overflow during the monsoon season, recalls Vasantrao Wagle, who has farmed in the area for four decades.当地水井用于溢流在季风季节，回顾vasantrao wagle ，谁养殖已在该地区40年来的。 Today, they top off about 10 feet below the surface, and drop even lower during the dry season.今天，他们顶端起飞约10英尺以下的表面上，并且放弃甚至更低在风高物燥。 "Even when it rains a lot, we aren't getting enough water," he says. “即使下雨时很多，我们没有得到足够的水， ”他说。

Parched northern China has been drawing down groundwater supplies.干枯中国北方已制定下来地下水供应。 In Beijing, water tables have dropped hundreds of feet.在北京，地下水位已下降数百英尺。 In nearby Hebei province, once large Baiyangdian Lake has shrunk, and survives mainly because the government has diverted water into it from the Yellow River.在附近的河北省，一旦大白洋淀缩水，并赖以生存的，主要是因为政府已改水，它从黄河。

Climate change is likely to intensify water woes.气候变化可能加大水的疾苦。 Shifting weather patterns will be felt "most strongly through changes in the distribution of water around the world and its seasonal and annual variability," according to the British government report on global warming led by Nicholas Stern.转移的天气模式将感受到“最强烈地通过变化，在分配水世界各地及其季节和年际变化， ”根据英国政府的报告对全球气候变暖所领导的尼古拉斯斯特恩。 Water shortages could be severe in parts Africa, the Middle East, southern Europe and Latin America, the report said.水资源短缺严重，可在部分非洲，中东，南部欧洲和拉丁美洲，报告说。

Feeding the Hungry 喂养饥饿

China's farmers need water because China needs food.中国的农民需要水，因为中国需要的食物。 Production of rice, wheat and corn topped out at 441.4 million tons in 1998 and hasn't hit that level since.生产大米，小麦和玉米突破了在四亿四千一百四十万吨在1998年并没有达到这一水平自。 Sea water has leaked into depleted aquifers in the north, threatening to turn land barren.海水已流入枯竭的含水层，在北，威胁，把土地贫瘠。 Illegal seizures of farmland by developers are widespread.非法缉获的耕地由发展商普遍。 The government last year declared that it would not permit arable land to drop below 120 million hectares (296 million acres), and said it would beef up enforcement of land-use rules.政府去年宣布，它将不会允许耕地，以跌破一万二千点〇 〇万公顷（二万九千六点零零万英亩） ，并表示将加强执法的土地使用规则。

The farmland squeeze is forcing difficult choices.农田挤压迫使困难的选择。 After disastrous floods in 1998, China started paying some farmers to abandon marginal farmland and plant trees.水灾后，在1998年，中国开始支付部分农民放弃边际农田及种植树木。 That "grain-to-green" program was intended to reverse the deforestation and erosion that exacerbated the floods. “粮食- -绿色”计划的意图是为了扭转森林砍伐和水土流失加剧了洪灾。 Last August, the government stopped expanding the program, citing the need for farmland and the cost.去年8月，政府停止扩建计划，列举需要耕地和成本。

A growing taste for meat and other higher-protein food in the developing world is boosting demand and prices for feed grains.越来越多的口味，为肉类及其他高蛋白质食物在发展中世界是刺激需求和价格的饲料粮。 "There are literally hundreds of millions of people...who are making the shift to protein, and competition for food world-wide is a new reality," says William Doyle, chief executive officer of fertilizer-maker Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan. “有数以百计的以百万计的人...谁是决策转向蛋白质，竞争食物世界全是从新的实际出发，说： ”威廉杜可风，总行政主任肥料制造商钾肥公司萨斯喀彻温省。

It takes nearly 10 pounds of grain to produce one pound of pork -- the staple meat in China -- and more than double that to produce a pound of beef, according to Vaclav Smil, a University of Manitoba geographer who studies food, energy and environment trends.需近10磅的粮食生产一磅猪肉-主食肉类在中国-的两倍多，产生磅的牛肉，据哈维尔SM IL的，马尼托巴大学地理学谁研究粮食，能源和环境的发展趋势。 The number of calories in the Chinese diet from meat and other animal products has more than doubled since 1990, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.有多少卡路里，在中国饮食从肉类及其他动物产品增加了一倍以上，自1990年以来，根据联合国粮食和农业组织。 But China still lags Taiwan when it comes to per-capita pork consumption.但中国仍落后台湾当谈到人均猪肉消费。 Matching Taiwan would increase China's annual pork consumption by 11 billion pounds -- as much pork as Americans eat in six or seven months.匹配台湾将增加中国的每年的猪肉消费一一〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇磅-高达猪肉的美国人吃在6或7个月。

Searching for Solutions 寻求解决办法

The 1972 warnings by the Club of Rome -- a nongovernmental think tank now based in Hamburg that brings together academics, business executives, civil servants and politicians to grapple with a wide range of global issues -- struck a chord because they came as oil prices were rising sharply. 1972年的警告，罗马俱乐部-一个民间智库，现在总部设在汉堡，召集学者，商界行政人员，公务员和政治家对付范围广泛的全球性问题-一个共鸣，因为他们来到油价人大幅增加。 Oil production in the continental US had peaked, sparking fears that energy demand had outstripped supply.石油生产在大陆，美国已见顶，引发担心的能源需求已超过供给。 Over time, America became more energy efficient, overseas oil production rose and prices fell.随着时间的推移，美国变得更加节能，海外石油产量上升和价格下降。

The dynamic today appears different.动态今天似乎有所不同。 So far, the oil industry has failed to find major new sources of crude.直至目前为止，石油工业已无法找到新的主要来源的原油。 Absent major finds, prices are likely to keep rising, unless consumers cut back.缺席的重大发现，价格可能会继续上升，除非消费者削减。 Taxes are one way to curb their appetites.税收是一个方法，以遏止他们的胃口。 In Western Europe and Japan, for example, where gas taxes are higher than in the US, per capita consumption is much lower.在西欧和日本，例如，如果汽油税均高于在美国，人均消费量低得多。

New technology could help ease the resource crunch.新技术可以帮助缓解资源紧绌。 Advances in agriculture, desalination and the clean production of electricity, among other things, would help.进步在农业，海水化淡及清洁生产的电力，除其他事项外，将有助于。

But Mr. Stiglitz, the economist, contends that consumers eventually will have to change their behavior even more than then did after the 1970s oil shock.但斯蒂格利茨先生，经济学家认为，消费者最终将不得不改变他们的行为，甚至多于后，当时20世纪70年代石油冲击。 He says the world's traditional definitions and measures of economic progress -- based on producing and consuming ever more -- may have to be rethought.他说，世界上的传统定义和措施，促进经济进步的-基于生产国和消费越来越多-可能要重新考虑。

In years past, the US, Europe and Japan have proven adept at adjusting to resource constraints.在过去几年中，美国，欧洲和日本已经证明，善于调整，资源的限制。 But history is littered with examples of societies believed to have suffered Malthusian crises: the Mayans of Central America, the Anasazi of the US Southwest, and the people of Easter Island.但历史是充斥着的例子，社团，相信已受到马尔萨斯危机：玛雅的中美洲， anasazi的美国西南部，和人民的复活节岛。

Those societies, of course, lacked modern science and technology.这些社团，当然，缺乏现代科学技术。 Still, their inability to overcome resource challenges demonstrates the perils of blithely believing things will work out, says economist James Brander at the University of British Columbia, who has studied Easter Island.但是，他们无法克服资源的挑战，表明了危险的blithely以为事情会的工作，说经济学家詹姆斯brander在英属哥伦比亚大学的，谁研究复活节岛的。

"We need to look seriously at the numbers and say: Look, given what we're consuming now, given what we know about economic incentives, given what we know about price signals, what is actually plausible?" “我们需要认真研究在数量和说：你看，鉴于我们现在的消费，现在，鉴于我们所知道的经济诱因，鉴于我们所知道的价格信号，什么是实际可行的” ？ says Mr. Brander.先生说brander 。

Indeed, the true lesson of Thomas Malthus, an English economist who died in 1834, isn't that the world is doomed, but that preservation of human life requires analysis and then tough action.事实上，真正的教训，托马斯马尔萨斯，英语经济学家谁死亡，在1834年，是不是这个世界，是注定，但保存人类生活的需要分析，然后强硬的行动。 Given the history of England, with its plagues and famines, Malthus had good cause to wonder if society was "condemned to a perpetual oscillation between happiness and misery."鉴于历史上，英格兰与瘟疫和饥荒，马尔萨斯进行了良好的事业，难怪，如果社会是“谴责一个永久的振荡之间的幸福和苦难” 。 That he was able to analyze that "perpetual oscillation" set him and his time apart from England's past.他是能够分析认为， “永久振荡”他和他的时间，除了来自英格兰的过去。 And that capacity to understand and respond meant that the world was less Malthusian thereafter.和能力，以理解和回应的意思是，世界上少马尔萨斯。

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