| Year Seven of the Doha WTO Talks 7年在多哈举行的世贸组织谈判 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Thursday, 03 January 2008星期四， 2008年1月3日 |
The seventh year of trade policy negotiations under the Doha Round of the WTO has begun.在第七个年头的贸易政策进行谈判的多哈回合谈判的世贸组织工作已经开始。 A first session in Geneva will last two weeks and draw on progress made since last September.第一届会议在日内瓦将持续两个星期，并提请所取得的进展自去年9月以来。 The Doha round began in November 2001 and was originally scheduled to end on Jan 1, 2005.多哈回合始于2001年11月的时间从原定的结束2005年1月1日。 While the talks have been much too slow, keep in mind that the Uruguay Round began in 1986 and the agreement creating the WTO from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade did not take effect until January 1995.虽然会谈取得了很多过于缓慢，请记住，在乌拉圭回合开始于1986年，该协议创造了世贸组织总协定的关税和贸易并没有生效，直到1995年1月。
The chairman of the agricultural negotiations, Crawford Falconer of New Zealand, had seen enough progress in informal talks over the past four months that on December 21 he issued four short working documents to clarify the emerging consensus on domestic support programs.主席的农业谈判，克劳福德福尔克纳新西兰，已看够了进展非正式会谈在过去四个月，在12月21日，他发表了四份短期工作文件，以澄清共识，国内支持计划。 There is still bracketed language for disagreements, but differences are narrowing.还有括号内的文字的分歧，但分歧正在缩小。 With the current expectation of continued high commodity prices for the next several years, domestic programs are less critical than earlier in the talks.与目前的预期继续高商品价格在未来几年内，国内项目较少比以前重要了会谈。 If an agreement can be worked out on domestic supports, it may lead to more efforts on market access which is at the heart of the agricultural talks.如果协议能制定出对国内支持，它可能导致更多的努力，对市场准入的核心是农业谈判。
Falconer proposed a formula for reduction of overall trade-distorting domestic support (OTDS), the broadest measure of domestic support.福尔克纳提出了一个公式，减少整体的贸易扭曲的国内支持（ OTDS ） ，最广泛的衡量国内支持。 The formula for developed countries would be the current maximum Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS), plus 5 percent of the average value of production for the base years of 1995-2000 for product-specific AMS and 5 percent for non-product-specific AMS, plus the higher of existing Blue Box payments or 5 percent of average 1995-2000 value of production.计算公式为发达国家将是目前的最高聚集程度的支持（医疗辅助队） ，另加百分之五的平均产值为基准年的1995-2000年的特定产品的AMS和百分之五的非特定产品的医疗辅助队，加上现有的高蓝箱付款或百分之五的平均1995-2000年的生产价值。 Countries with OTDS of greater than $60 billion per year would reduce by 75-85 percent; those with $10-60 billion by 66-73 percent; and countries with less than $10 billion by 50-60 percent.国家OTDS大于600亿美元，每年将减少百分之75-85 ;那些为10-60亿美元的百分之66-73 ;和国家的不到100亿美元的百分之50-60 。 The beginning US OTDS would be $48.4 billion.年初美国OTDS将四百八十四点〇 〇 〇亿美元。 A reduction of 66 percent would reduce it to $16.0 billion, and a 73 percent reduction to $13.1 billion.减少百分之六十六将减少到160亿，以及73个减少百分之至131亿元。 These numbers were agreed to by the US in October of 2007.这些数字是同意由美国在2007年10月。 One-third of the reduction would occur at the beginning of the implementation period and the remaining amount in equal steps over five years.三分之一的削减将发生在开始实施阶段，其余的金额相等的步骤超过五年。
The final bound limit on the AMS amber box proposed by Falconer would require the US to reduce the current $19.1 billion per year limit by 60 percent to $7.6 billion as proposed by the US in 2005.最后时限的限制医疗辅助队黄箱福尔克纳提出的要求美国减少目前一百九十一点〇 〇 〇亿美元限制每年百分之六十至76亿美元的提议，美国在2005年。 Thirty percent of the reduction would occur at implementation with the remaining amount spread equally over four years.百分之三十的削减将发生在执行剩余的蔓延同样数额超过四年。 Product-specific AMS limits for the US would be created based on total AMS outlays for 1995-2000 and the proportional distribution of total AMS for 1995-2004.特定产品的医疗辅助队的限制，美国将设立总额为基础的医疗辅助队1995-2000年的支出和按比例分配医疗辅助队共为1995-2004年。 These product-specific limits are a way to keep countries from shifting outlays from one commodity to another.这些产品的具体限制，以保持国家转移支出从一个到另一个商品。 The limits would be imposed immediately or over three years.的限制将立即实行或超过三年。 The proposal would also reduce the 5 percent of production value for the product-specific de minimis and the non-product-specific de minimis by 50 percent or 60 percent at the beginning of implementation or in five equal installments.该提案也将减少百分之五的生产值为特定产品的微量和非特定产品的微量百分之五十或百分之六十在开始执行或在五个平等的分期付款。
The Blue Box would continue to include payments for production limiting programs and include direct payments if no production is required and payments are made based on fixed bases and yields.蓝色方块将继续包括支付的生产限制计划，包括直接付款，如果没有生产需要和支付基于固定基地和产量。 A consensus has not been reached on if member states have to choose in advance which category to use.一种共识尚未达成，如果会员国必须事先选择哪一类使用。 Total support could not exceed 2.5 percent of total average value of production in a suggested 1995-2000 base period.共计支持不能超过百分之二点五的总平均产值在1995-2000年提出的基期。 Product-specific payments would be limited.特定产品支付将是有限的。 Payment could exceed those limits in the blue box with a corresponding permanent reduction in the product-specific AMS.付款可能超过这些限制中的蓝色方块，并相应减少常任理事国在具体产品的医疗辅助队。
The mind numbing details of changes proposed by Chairman Falconer are part of the normal process of working out specific language of a trade agreement.心灵麻木的细节所提议的改动主席福尔克纳是正常的制定过程中特定语言的贸易协定。 While these changes, and more that will come in the months ahead, are important, they are not the leap forward necessary to avoid another year of frustration.虽然这些变化，更多的将在今后几个月里，是很重要的，它们不是必要的飞跃，以避免又一年的失望。 Those changes have to come from the negotiating positions of the major countries.这些变化都来自于谈判立场的主要国家。
Some participants in the US agricultural policy debate have not completely grasped the fundamental agricultural trade policy shift within the WTO.一些与会者在美国的农业政策进行辩论并没有完全掌握了基本的农业贸易政策的转变在世贸组织内。 In a Dow Jones Newswire interview at the end of 2007 outgoing USDA Chief Economist Keith Collins referenced US lawmakers who have tied their policy thinking to the 1994 Uruguay Round agreement rather than the spirit of the Doha Round.在道琼斯通讯社采访在2007年年底即将离任的美国农业部首席经济学家基思柯林斯引用美国国会议员已并列谁的政策思路1994年的乌拉圭回合协议，而不是精神的多哈回合谈判。 That is a key point.这是一个关键点。 US policy makers are too wedded to the Uruguay Round policy framework that was designed as a transition to start the process of reducing trade distorting domestic supports by focusing on the most trade distorting programs at the beginning of the transition.美国决策者过于拘泥于乌拉圭回合的政策框架，目的是作为一种过渡到启动的过程中减少扭曲贸易的国内支持把注意力放在最扭曲贸易的节目开始时的过渡。 That was only a beginning, not an end in itself.这只是一个开端，而不是目的本身。 Countries are now demanding continued reforms while the US is defending tinkering with the status quo.国家现在都要求继续改革，而美国是维护修补现状。
The other "spirit of Doha” challenge for the US is the supposed link between reducing domestic supports and gaining expanded access to markets in other countries. That link does not exist in the game plans of other negotiators. Domestic programs were to be further reduced with or without increased market access because the programs are trade distorting. Increased market access is at the core of WTO trade negotiations and is a benefit for exporting and importing countries without considering any tradeoff for domestic support programs.其他的“精神多哈”挑战美国的假定之间的联系减少国内支持和获得市场准入的扩大在其他国家。这种联系并不存在于游戏计划的其他谈判。国内项目要进一步减少或不增加市场准入，因为程序是贸易扭曲。扩大市场准入的核心是世贸组织的贸易谈判，并且是受益出口国和进口国，不考虑任何折衷的国内支持计划。
Trade policies under the WTO were never meant to be static; they will continue to change as the members move toward freer trade.贸易政策根据世贸组织绝不是静态的;他们将继续改变的成员走向自由贸易。 Chairman Falconer and the negotiators should be congratulated from pushing the agricultural trade policy agenda forward under difficult circumstances.主席福尔克纳和谈判应该祝贺从推动农业贸易政策议程向前发展困难的情况下。 Now decision makers in key governments like the US, EU, India and Brazil need to make sure their thinking aligns with the “spirit of Doha.” Without that, it will be another frustrating year in the agricultural trade policy trenches.现在，决策者在关键的政府，如美国，欧盟，印度和巴西必须确保他们的思想完全符合该“多哈会议的精神。 ”没有，那将是另一个令人沮丧的一年在农业贸易政策的壕沟。
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