| US-Mexican Nonfat Dried Milk Trade Will Be Free in 2008美墨脱脂奶粉贸易将在2008年免费 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Wednesday, 26 December 2007星期三， 2007年12月26日 |
Freer trade in dairy products was partially left behind when NAFTA began in 1994.自由贸易乳制品部分时留下的北美自由贸易协定于1994年开始。 It was mostly excluded in the US-Canada relationship and provided with a 10-year transition for US-Mexico and Canada-Mexico trade in most products and a 15-year transition in the highest volume product, nonfat dried milk.它主要是被排除在美国与加拿大的关系，并提供了10年的过渡，美国墨西哥和加拿大和墨西哥的贸易在大多数产品和15年的过渡中的最高数量的产品，脱脂奶粉。 Nonfat dried milk trade becomes duty free on January 1, 2008 at a time of high prices for nonfat dried milk and changes in international trade.脱脂奶粉成为贸易免税1月1日，在2008年时的价格高脱脂奶粉和改变国际贸易的发展。
Mexico wanted access to nonfat dried milk imports under NAFTA because exports were highly subsidized by most major milk producing and exporting countries.墨西哥希望获得脱脂奶粉的进口，因为根据北美自由贸易协定出口高补贴的牛奶主要生产国和出口国。 Given Mexico’s close proximity to the US, it became the largest importer of nonfat dried milk under the US Dairy Export Incentive Program.鉴于墨西哥靠近美国，成为最大的进口脱脂奶粉根据美国奶制品出口激励计划。 Subsidized exports were limited under the Uruguay Round WTO agreement, but have not impacted exports in recent years as rising international prices made the US competitive.出口补贴是有限的根据乌拉圭回合世界贸易组织协定，但尚未出口的影响，近年来在国际价格的上升使美国的竞争力。 In 2005 Mexico imported 154,715 metric tons (MT) of nonfat dried milk, with 84 percent from the US Imports slowed to 111,033 MT in 2006 because of high prices, with 76 percent from the US在2005年墨西哥进口154715吨（吨）的脱脂奶粉，百分之84从美国的进口下降到111033吨， 2006年，由于价格过高，与百分之七十六来自美国
Under NAFTA the US was provided increasing tariff rate quotas (TRQ) with lower over-quota tariff rates.根据北美自由贸易协定，美国提供了越来越多的关税率配额（配额）在较低的配额内关税税率。 For 2007, the TRQ is 58,741 MT with an over quota tariff equal to the greater of 11.8 percent or $98 per MT. 2007年，关税配额是58741吨的配额内关税超过等于更大的百分之11.8或98美元每吨。 In the first six months of 2007 imports were 55,542 MT, with 37,711 MT, 68 percent, from the US在2007年头6个月进口55542吨，与37711吨，百分之六十八，来自美国
A company controlled by the Mexican government known as LICONSA charged with distributing milk to poor families accounts for about 40 percent of nonfat dried milk imports from the US LICONSA is trying to increase the amount of fluid milk it purchases from small and medium sized domestic producers, but has run into pricing problems because the government controls the selling price to consumers and holds the purchase price for farmers below the currently high international price for milk.该公司控制的墨西哥政府称为LICONSA负责分发牛奶，为贫困家庭占了约百分之四十的脱脂奶粉从美国的进口LICONSA是设法增加液体奶从购买中小型国内生产者，但运行到价格的问题，因为政府控制价格的消费者，并拥有价款为农民低于目前国际价格高的牛奶。
Mexico has 6.8 million dairy cows, unchanged in recent years, with 2.2 million used exclusively for milk and the other 4.6 million being dual-purpose milk-beef cows.墨西哥680万头奶牛，改变近年来，随着220万美元专门用于牛奶和其他460万美元的双重目的牛奶牛肉牛。 According to analysis by the US Agricultural Attaché in Mexico, the dairy production industry has three principal systems. The northern states of Mexico have confinement systems similar to those in the US with mostly Holstein cows fed 20-22 pounds of grain per day.北部各州的墨西哥禁闭系统类似于美国的主要荷斯坦奶牛喂20-22公斤的粮食每天。 Semi-confined systems are used in the central states with some grazing and grain fed at 11-13 pounds per day.半封闭系统中使用的中央国家与一些放牧和谷物喂养在11-13公斤每天。 Dual purpose cows are used mostly in the sub-tropical south with native grasses and cultivated pastures as feed.双牛的目的主要用于在撒哈拉以南的热带与本地草种种植牧草和饲料。 This third system has two-thirds of Mexico’s dairy cows, but produces only 30 percent of the nation’s milk output.这第三个系统已经有三分之二的墨西哥的奶牛，但只生产百分之三十的国家的牛奶产量。
Of the 10.1 MMT of milk produced in Mexico in 2007, 4.3 MMT is expected to be consumed as fluid milk, with the remaining 5.8 MMT processed into products.在10.1万吨的牛奶生产在墨西哥在2007年， 4.3万吨预计将消耗液体奶，其余的5.8万吨加工成产品。 The country’s five major dairy processors compete aggressively to supply quality milk products to the growing middle class.该国的5个主要乳品处理器的竞争力积极提供牛奶产品质量的不断壮大的中产阶级。 In low income areas fluid milk consumption continues to be limited by sanitation, transportation and processing conditions.在低收入地区液体牛奶消费仍然是有限的，卫生，运输和加工条件。 In those areas LICONSA reconstitutes nonfat dried milk and sells it at subsidized prices.在这些地区LICONSA reconstitutes脱脂奶粉，并出售以补贴价格。 LICONSA uses about 60 percent of Mexico’s nonfat dried milk (domestically produced and imported), and 35 percent is used by private processors to reconstitute for fluid sales and in production of cheese and other products. LICONSA使用大约百分之六十墨西哥的脱脂奶粉（国产和进口） ，以及百分之三十五是用私人处理器重新流体的销售和生产的奶酪和其他产品。
USDA expects Mexico’s fluid milk production to increase by only 1 percent in 2008.美国农业部预计墨西哥的液体奶制品的产量仅增加百分之一到2008年。 Nonfat dried milk production is expected to increase by 5 percent to 200,000 MT.脱脂奶粉产量预计将增加百分之五至200000吨。 Use of nonfat dried milk is likely to increase by 8 percent in 2008 to 335,000 MT, and imports will increase by 13 percent from 120,000 MT in 2007 to 135,000 MT in 2008.使用脱脂奶粉很可能会增加百分之八到2008年， 33.5万吨，进口将增加百分之十三从120000吨， 2007年13.5万吨， 2008年。 This increase partially offsets a 28 percent decline in imports that occur in 2006 when nonfat dried milk prices first began to escalate.这一增长部分抵消了28百分之进口下降发生在2006年时，脱脂奶粉价格开始升级。
As with the January 1, 2008 removal of TRQs and over-quota tariffs on corn and dry beans, the ending of import restrictions on nonfat dried milk under NAFTA has come at an opportune time with high prices in global markets.至于2008年一月一日取消关税配额和超配额关税，玉米和干豆类，结束了进口限制脱脂奶粉根据北美自由贸易协定是在适当时机与高油价在全球市场上。 One benefit of the ending of restrictions will be that importers and exporters can better time shipments of nonfat dried milk.一个好处结束的限制，将是进口商和出口商能够更好地出货时间的脱脂奶粉。 In the past the government of Mexico sometimes delayed import license commitments until late in the calendar year rather than releasing them on a regular basis.在过去的墨西哥政府有时会延误进口许可证的承诺，直到在2007年年底，而不是释放他们定期。 For 2007 the government has established additional amounts of TRQs under NAFTA and the WTO because of strong market demand. 2007年，政府设立了额外的关税配额数量根据北美自由贸易协定和世界贸易组织，因为强劲的市场需求。 Trade has also benefited from the lack of sanitary/phyto-sanitary issues that could stifle movements.贸易也受益于缺乏卫生/植物卫生问题，这可能扼杀运动。
Imports also play an important role for dairy products that have had unrestricted trade since 2003.进口也发挥了重要作用乳制品产品有不受限制的贸易自2003年以来。 Mexican cheese production in 2007, including cheese made from imported nonfat dried milk, is estimated at 147,000 MT.墨西哥奶酪生产在2007年，包括奶酪从进口脱脂奶粉，估计为14.7万吨。 Imports will supply another 88,000 MT of cheese.进口供应将另88,000吨的奶酪。 Consumption is expected to grow by 2 percent in 2008 as the middle class continues to demand more cheese products.消费预计将增长百分之二， 2008年为中产阶级继续要求更多的奶酪产品。 A preference for non-Mexican cheeses will result in imports increasing by 2.2 percent.最好的非墨西哥奶酪将导致进口增加了百分之二点二。 Butter imports of 50,000 MT per year supply 30 percent of the market and are expected to be unchanged in 2008.黄油进口的50000吨，每年供应百分之三十的市场，预计将在2008年保持不变。
Mexico should continue to be a major market for US dairy products as increased demand exceeds domestic production.墨西哥应该继续是一个主要市场为美国奶制品的需求增加，超过了国内生产。 Because of efforts by the Mexican government in recent years to expand access for US products beyond the minimum requirements of NAFTA, Mexican milk producers in the northern two-thirds of the country have been competing with US producers in an open market.由于努力，墨西哥政府近年来扩大对美国产品以外的最低要求北美自由贸易协定，墨西哥的牛奶生产者在北部三分之二的国家已经与美国竞争的生产者在一个开放的市场。 Concerns about the ability of small-scale milk producers in the center and southern portions of the country to compete in the NAFTA market will be an ongoing political issue.关注能力的小规模的牛奶生产者的中心和南部的部分国家的竞争在北美自由贸易区市场将是一个持续不断的政治问题。 The real test will come when dairy markets are more amply supplied and prices descend from their recent highs.真正的考验将在乳品市场更充分的供应和价格的下降从他们的近期高位。
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