| US-Mexican Corn Trade Becomes Free in 2008美国和墨西哥玉米成为自由贸易在2008年 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Thursday, 13 December 2007星期四， 2007年12月13 |
Just a year ago the Mexican corn market was in turmoil with sharply higher prices for corn tortillas, a staple of the diet at about 150 pounds per capita per year and a major food for many low income people.就在一年前，墨西哥玉米市场是在动荡与价格大幅提高玉米饼，一个主食的饮食约一百五十英镑人均每年主要食物，许多低收入人民。 The market has stabilized since then and appears to be prepared for the ending on January 1, 2008 of the 15-year transition under NAFTA.市场已经稳定下来，自此似乎是准备结束1月1日， 2008年的15年过渡根据北美自由贸易协定。 Mexico is already a major importer of US corn and volumes are expected to increase in 2008.墨西哥已经是一个主要进口国美国的玉米和贸易量预计将增长到2008年。
NAFTA provided for a tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 2.5 million metric tons (MMT) for US corn entering Mexico in 1994, the first year of NAFTA.北美自由贸易协定规定的关税率配额（配额）的250万吨（万吨）的美国玉米进入墨西哥在1994年，第一年的北美自由贸易协定。 The TRQ increased by 3 percent per year to 3.7 MMT in 2007.的配额增加了百分之三，每年为3.7万吨， 2007年。 As the TRQ increased each year, the over-quota bound tariff on corn imports from the US declined from 206.4 percent in 1994 to 18.2 percent in 2007.随着配额逐年增加，超过配额约束关税对玉米从美国的进口下降到206.4百分之1994年至百分之十八点二在2007年。 Demand for corn grew faster than the growth of the quota, and in most years the Mexican government allowed over quota corn to enter with a 1-2 percent tariff on yellow corn and 2-3 percent on white corn.对玉米的需求增长速度超过生长的配额，并在大多数年份，墨西哥政府允许超过配额的玉米进入了1-2关税的黄玉米和百分之2-3白玉米。 The Mexican Congress mandated the use of the over-quota bound tariff for white corn of 72.6 percent in 2004, 54.5 percent in 2005, 36.3 percent in 2006 and 19.2 percent in 2007.墨西哥议会授权使用的配额约束关税为白玉米的百分之72.6在2004年， 54.5百分之2005年，新兴市场在2006年和百分之19.2在2007年。
The Mexican corn market is actually two markets, one for white corn used primarily for human consumption and a yellow corn market for livestock feed and food processing like starch and high fructose corn syrup.墨西哥玉米市场实际上是两个市场，一个是白玉米主要用于人类消费和一个黄色的玉米市场牲畜饲料和食品加工淀粉一样，高果糖玉米糖浆。 Domestic Mexican production is over 90 percent white corn and imports, almost all from the US, are 97 percent yellow corn.墨西哥国内生产的百分之九十以上白玉米和进口，几乎所有的来自美国，百分之九十七是黄色的玉米。 Yellow corn is usually priced lower than white corn and helps to keep the markets separate.黄河玉米的价格通常低于白玉米，并有助于保持市场分开。 In the fall of 2006 yellow corn prices in Mexico increased sharply in response to higher US corn prices, and white corn prices were temporarily below imported yellow corn prices.在2006年秋季黄玉米的价格在墨西哥大幅度增加对美国较高的玉米价格，白玉米价格暂时低于进口的黄玉米的价格。 That diverted about 1.2 MMT of domestic white corn to the feed market and helped lead to higher prices for white corn and tortillas.这改行约1.2万吨的国内白玉米的饲料市场，并帮助导致更高的价格白玉米和玉米饼。
Higher prices for corn in Mexico have lead to a 5 percent increase in acreage for the 2007/08 marketing year that began on October 1.价格较高的玉米在墨西哥已导致百分之五播种面积增加， 2007/08市场年度始于10月1日。 USDA estimates total production at 23.2 MMT this year compared to 22.0 MMT last year.美国农业部估计总产量在23.2万吨相比，今年22.0万吨去年。 The Mexican government has promoted production of yellow corn by encouraging users of yellow corn to forward contract with producers to ensure a market.墨西哥政府促进生产的黄玉米，鼓励用户的黄玉米，以远期合同与生产，以确保市场。 The government plans to continue these efforts through 2012.政府计划继续进行这种努力，到2012年。
Exports of corn to Mexico did not begin with NAFTA.玉米出口到墨西哥没有开始与北美自由贸易协定。 In the 15 years before NAFTA US corn exports averaged about 3 MMT per year with two years at 5 MMT.在15年北美自由贸易协定之前，美国玉米出口平均约3万吨，每年以两年为5万吨。 After NAFTA began, corn imports by Mexico regularly exceeded the yearly minimums.北美自由贸易协定开始后，玉米的进口墨西哥经常超过了每年的最低。 Domestic Mexican corn production also increased from about 15 MMT per year just before NAFTA to 23.2 MMT for 2007/08.国内墨西哥玉米产量也增加了约15万吨，每年仅在北美自由贸易协定，以23.2万吨2007/08年度。 USDA estimates total Mexican corn consumption at 33.3 MMT for the 2007/08 marketing year.美国农业部估计，墨西哥玉米消费33.3万吨， 2007/08销售年度。 Corn imports are now about 30 percent of consumption versus 15 percent during the decade before NAFTA.玉米进口现在百分之三十左右的消费相比百分之十五期间， 10年前北美自由贸易协定。
In recent years Mexican corn imports have increased from 5.7 MMT in 2003/04 to 8.8 million tons in 2006/07, with a USDA forecast of 10.2 MMT for 2007/08.近年来，墨西哥的玉米进口增加至5.7万吨， 2003/04年度为8.8万吨， 2006/07年度，与美国农业部预测的10.2万吨2007/08年度。 Two unique market conditions are influencing imports for 2007/08.两个独特的市场条件是影响2007/08年度的进口。 Since 2003 cracked corn from the US has entered Mexico tariff free.自2003年以来破获的玉米从美国进入墨西哥的关税全免。 In the 2006-07 marketing year cracked corn imports were about 2.0 MMT and were counted as milled products.在2006-07市场年度玉米进口破获了约2.0万吨，并算作碾磨产品。 With free trade in corn effective January 1, cracked corn imports are expected to decline to near zero and be replace one-for-one with whole yellow corn.随着自由贸易的玉米1月1日起，破获玉米进口量预计将下降到接近零，并取代一对一全黄玉米。 Sorghum from the US has also been duty free and imports have been as much as 3 MMT in recent years.高粱来自美国也已免税进口已多达3万吨，近年来。 The EU is short on feed grain supplies this year and has been aggressively bidding for sorghum imports.欧盟是短期的饲料粮供应，今年一直在积极申办高粱进口。 A more than doubling of EU sorghum imports may result in lower imports to Mexico.增加一倍以上的欧盟进口高粱可能会导致降低进口到墨西哥。 Corn would replace the sorghum.玉米将取代高粱。
The US Agricultural Attaché in Mexico estimates livestock and poultry feed use at 17.5 MMT for 2007/08.美国农业随员在墨西哥估计牲畜和家禽饲料用量为17.5万吨2007/08年度。 Poultry alone is estimated to use over 8 MMT.家禽估计仅使用了800万吨。 Higher feed costs have slowed the growth in livestock and poultry production in Mexico.高等教育饲料成本已经放慢了增长的牲畜和家禽在墨西哥生产。 Sorghum use is about 8 MMT per year with most of that for livestock and poultry feed.高粱使用约8万吨，每年的大部分，对牲畜和家禽饲料。
The Mexican government continues to make direct per acre payments to corn producers as it does for sorghum, wheat, rice and dry beans.墨西哥政府继续作出直接支付每英亩玉米生产者因为它的高粱，小麦，大米和干豆。 Flat rate payments of $35 per acre are made to farmers with more than 12.5 acres of crops and $42 per acre for farmers with less than 12.5 acres.统一费率支付35美元每英亩是农民超过一十二点五英亩作物和42美元每英亩为农民不到十二点五英亩。
The 15-year transition period for corn appears to have achieved the objective of allowing demand and imports to grow while providing the Mexican government with the opportunity to limit imports if necessary. 15年的过渡期玉米似乎已经实现了目标，使需求和进口增长，而提供了墨西哥政府的机会，限制进口，如果必要的。 The Mexican government took an enlightened self-interest approach to policy by allowing over quota imports at low tariffs for yellow corn to feed the growing livestock and poultry industries.墨西哥政府采取了开明的自我利益的政策办法，允许超过配额进口低关税的黄玉米为饲料日益增长的牲畜和家禽产业。 Mexico is a consistent buyer of US corn and the number two importer of US corn behind Japan.墨西哥是一致的买主美国玉米和排名第二的进口美国玉米仅次于日本。
The transition is ending at a fortunate time in the corn market.过渡结束在一个幸运的时间在玉米市场。 With strong US domestic demand for corn at ethanol plants, US exports projected at a record 2.45 billion bushels for the 2007/08 marketing year and fewer acres of US corn expected to be planted next spring, corn prices in both countries should remain high enough to encourage corn production in Mexico.凭借强大的美国国内需求的玉米乙醇厂，美国的出口预计达到创纪录24.50亿蒲式耳， 2007/08市场年度少英亩的美国玉米预计将于明年春天栽种，玉米价格在这两个国家应保持足够高鼓励玉米产量在墨西哥。
The white corn market for human consumption will to be a challenge.白玉米市场供人类消费将会是一个挑战。 Mexican agriculture accounts for 3.9 percent of GDP, but accounts for 18 percent of the labor force.墨西哥农业占3.9国内生产总值的百分之，但占百分之十八的劳动力。 While official unemployment is a low 3.2 percent, underemployment, much of it in rural areas, is estimated at 25 percent.虽然官方的失业率是一种低百分之三点二，就业不足，其中大部分是在农村地区，估计为百分之二十五。 Creating public policies that encourage the transformation of subsistence agriculture within the context of free trade is largely uncharted territory.创建公共政策，鼓励改造自给农业的范围内自由贸易的主要是未知领域。
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