| The NAFTA Transition for Sugar Ends in 2008北美自由贸易区过渡的糖在2008年完 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Thursday, 06 December 2007星期四， 07年十二月六日 |
Some trade issues between the US and Mexico, like sugar, were sensitive when NAFTA was negotiated, and the agreement provided for a 15 year transition that ends on January 1, 2008.一些贸易问题与美国和墨西哥一样，糖，敏感时，北美自由贸易协定的谈判，协议规定的15年过渡期结束1月1日， 2008年。 The two countries remain major sugar producers, and both continue to use government policies to support sugar prices above world market prices.这两个国家仍然是主要的糖生产商，同时继续利用政府的政策支持食糖价格高于国际市场价格。 The ultimate problems for the two industries are domestic policies, not trade policy.最终的问题，这两个行业的国内政策，而不是贸易政策。
The US produces about 7.7 million metric tons raw value (MMTRV) of sugar per year, the world’s fifth largest output, and imports 1.9 MMTRV under tariff rate quotas (TRQ) based on WTO, NAFTA and CAFTA commitments.美国生产约770万吨原料价值（ MMTRV ）的糖，每年世界上第五大产出，进口1.9 MMTRV根据关税税率配额（配额）根据世界贸易组织，北美自由贸易协定和中美洲自由贸易协定的承诺。 Exports are 0.2-3.0 MMTRV per year leaving domestic consumption, at about 9.3 MMTRV per year.出口0.2-3.0 MMTRV离开每年国内消费，约9.3 MMTRV左右。 In the 2005/06 marketing year after Hurricane Katrina total US imports were 3.1 MMTRV.在2005/06年度卡特里娜飓风后美国的进口总额为3.1 MMTRV 。 The US is usually the fourth largest importer of sugar, just ahead of Indonesia and Japan.美国通常是第四大进口糖，之前印度尼西亚和日本。
Mexico is the seventh largest sugar producer at 5.6 MMTRV per year and has imports of 0.2-0.4 MMTRV per year.墨西哥是美国的第七大食糖生产5.6 MMTRV每年并已进口的0.2-0.4 MMTRV左右。 In 2004/05 Mexico produced over 6 MMTRV of sugar, but in no other recent year has production exceeded 5.6 MMTRV.在2004/05年墨西哥生产超过6 MMTRV的糖，但在没有其他最近一年生产超过5.6 MMTRV 。 Exports average 0.4-0.5 MMTRV per year with consumption of 5.6 MMTRV per year.出口平均0.4-0.5 MMTRV每年消费5.6 MMTRV左右。 Most of the imported sugar is re-exported in other products.大多数进口糖再出口的其他产品。 Mexico had a NAFTA refined sugar TRQ for the US for 2007 of 250,000 MTRV.墨西哥在北美自由贸易协定精制糖关税配额为美国2007年的250000 MTRV 。 Per capita domestic consumption is 105 pounds per year making Mexico the world’s sixth largest per capita consumer.人均国内消费一百〇五磅每年使墨西哥的世界第六大的人均消费。 The Mexican sugar industry provides 450,000 jobs and directly benefits 2.2 million people.墨西哥的制糖业提供了450000就业机会和直接受益220万人。
The sugar industries of both countries require government import protection from the world’s low cost and average cost producers.在制糖业这两个国家的进口需要政府的保护来自世界成本低，平均成本生产者。 According to data in the Sugar Backgrounder released in July of 2007 by the Economic Research Service (ERS) of USDA, the main cane sugar growing areas of the US from 1999-2004 had average raw cane production costs of $0.1255 to $0.2008 per pound.根据数据资料的糖7月公布的2007年的经济研究局（地球资源卫星）美国农业部，主要蔗糖产区，美国从1999-2004年，平均原料甘蔗的生产成本0.1255美元以0.2008美元每磅。 The eastern growing regions of Mexico had costs of $0.1333 to $0.1640 per pound, with the western growing regions having higher costs.越来越多的东部地区的墨西哥费用0.1333美元以0.1640美元每磅，与越来越多的西部地区具有较高的费用。 The weighted world average costs from 1999-2004 were $0.1076 to $0.1226 per pound with the six lowest cost countries at $0.542 to $0.1153 per pound.世界上的加权平均成本从1999-2004年的0.1076美元以0.1226美元每磅六个成本最低的国家0.542美元以0.1153美元每磅。
For 70 years the Mexican government has had income support programs for sugar and in April of 2007 made changes to be competitive with US sugar by 2012. 70年来，墨西哥政府已收入支持计划，糖和2007年4月做出改变，以保持竞争力与美国到2012年食糖。 According to US Agricultural Attaché reports, Mexico’s goal is to supply the 5.7 MMTRV domestic market and have 0.84 MMTRV for export to the US, including 0.22 MMTRV in re-exports.据美国农业随员报告，墨西哥的目标是供应的5.7 MMTRV国内市场和0.84 MMTRV已出口到美国，其中包括0.22 MMTRV转口的增长。 They also plan to produce 120 million gallons of ethanol per year from sugar.他们还计划生产120万加仑的乙醇，每年从糖。 The increase in production is to be achieved by increasing acreage, improving efficiencies at field and plant levels and improving the flow of market information to the industry.增加的产量要达到种植面积的增加，从而提高效率和在外地工厂的水平和改进流动的市场信息的行业。
The other sweetener that influences US and Mexican sugar markets is high fructose corn syrup (HFCS).其他甜味剂是影响美国和墨西哥的食糖市场是高果糖玉米糖浆（高果糖浆） 。 The ERS Sugar Backgrounder reports that the cost of production of HFCS-55 in Mexico and the US from 1999 though 2004 averaged $0.1003 to $0.2146 per pound.糖的地球资源卫星背景资料报告说，生产成本的高果糖浆- 55在墨西哥和美国从1999年虽然2004年的平均0.1003美元以0.2146美元每磅。 During most of those six years HFCS was cheaper than sugar in both markets and is used in the beverage industry.在大多数人六年来高果糖浆是较食糖市场和用于饮料行业。 Production costs are similar in the US and Mexico because 70-75 percent of the corn used in Mexico to make HFCS is imported from the US Production of HFCS in Mexico is estimated at 0.4 MMT for the 2006/07 marketing year and again for 2007/08.生产成本是类似的在美国和墨西哥，因为70-75百分之玉米在墨西哥使用，使高果糖浆进口美国生产的高果糖浆在墨西哥估计为0.4万吨2006/07市场年度，并再次为2007 / 08 。 Imports of HFCS from the US are estimated at 0.3 MMT for the 2006/07 and 0.33 MMT for 2007/08.高果糖浆进口来自美国估计为0.3万吨， 2006/07年度为0.33万吨和2007/08年度。 Current high prices for US corn could be a limiting factor for production in Mexico and imports from the US The two countries have had repeated disagreements on trade in HFCS, but have agreed to keep the market open.目前的高油价对美国玉米可能是一个限制因素在墨西哥生产，并从美国的进口，两国有分歧，一再贸易高果糖浆，但同意继续开放市场。
The role of HFCS in the Mexican sugar market was shown by projections of sweetener consumption in Mexico to the year 2020 made by ERS in late 2006.的作用，高果糖浆在墨西哥的食糖市场所表现出的预测甜味剂消费在墨西哥到2020年所作的地球资源卫星在2006年年底。 Population growth and increases in per capital consumption are expected to increase the sweeteners market from 5.6 MMTRV in 2008 to 7.1 MMTRV in 2020.人口增长和增加人均消费量预计将增加市场的甜头从5.6 MMTRV在2008年的7.1 MMTRV在2020年。 Different growth rates in HFCS used in the beverage market were analyzed and solved for sugar market prices that were equal in the US and Mexico.不同的增长率高果糖浆中使用的饮料市场进行了分析和解决的食糖市场价格，都是平等的在美国和墨西哥。 One scenario assumed HFCS would account for 30 percent of the beverage market, about the same as in 2007.假设一个高果糖浆将占百分之三十的饮料市场，与在2007年。 The other two assumed HFCS would increase to 50 percent and 75 percent of the beverage market.其他两个假定高果糖浆会增加百分之五十和百分之七十五的饮料市场。 Under continuation of the 2007 HFCS use rate of 30 percent, sugar movements to the US would decline from about 0.6 MMTRV in 2008-10 to almost zero by 2020.继续按照2007年的高果糖浆利用率百分之三十，食糖运动，美国将减少约0.6 MMTRV在2008-2010年几乎为零，到2020年。 In the 50 percent HFCS share scenario, sugar exports decline from 0.8 MMTRV over the next few years to 0.4 MMTRV by 2020.在高果糖浆百分之五十的份额的情况下，食糖出口下降，从0.8 MMTRV未来几年至0.4 MMTRV到2020年。 The 75 percent share for HFCS resulted in exports of about 1.3 MMTRV for the next few years and a decline to just under 0.9 MMTRV by 2020.百分之七十五的份额高果糖浆导致出口约130 MMTRV今后几年的下降到不到0.9 MMTRV到2020年。
US and Mexican farm policies support the price of sugar above world market prices and those high prices also attract the use of close substitutes such as HFCS.美国和墨西哥农业政策支持食糖价格高于世界市场价格和高价格也吸引使用密切代用品，如高果糖浆。 But the issue is larger than just HFCS.但问题是更大的不仅仅是高果糖浆。 According to the ERS Sugar Backgrounder, imports of sugar containing products contained 1.15 million tons of sugar in 2005 compared to only 350,000 tons in 1995.根据背景的ERS糖，进口糖产品载一百十五点〇 〇 〇万吨食糖相比， 2005年只有三十五点○万吨在1995年。 The US also exports sugar containing products, but the net sugar inflow has increased from 32,000 tons in 1995 to 559,000 tons in 2005.美国还含有糖的出口产品，但糖的净流入增加了由三点二〇 〇万吨在1995年五十五点九〇 〇万吨在2005年。
The ending of the transition under NAFTA for sugar trade does not end the challenges of domestic sugar policies.结束过渡根据北美自由贸易协定的食糖贸易不会结束的挑战，国内食糖的政策。 Those policies have been and can continue to be managed through import constraints.这些政策已经并将继续成为进口管理的制约因素。 Much harder to manage are the economic forces when prices are held at a level that encourages the production and import of substitutes.更难管理的经济力量时，举行价格在一定水平，鼓励生产和进口替代品。 As sugar trade policy problems develop in the coming months between the US and Mexico, remember that the issue is a product pricing problem that trade negotiators cannot solve.作为食糖的贸易政策问题，制定在未来几个月内美国与墨西哥，记住，问题是产品定价的问题，贸易谈判不能解决。
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