| Seeking Resolution of the Brazilian Cotton Case寻求解决巴西棉花案件 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Wednesday, 01 August 2007星期三， 2007年8月一号 |
The leaking on July 27th of a WTO compliance panel report to the US and Brazilian governments that the US had not fully complied with a March 2005 WTO ruling concerning certain US government cotton support programs is the latest event in a five-year WTO process.泄漏于7月27日世贸组织遵守小组的报告对美国和巴西政府认为美国没有充分遵守了2005年3月世贸组织的裁决关于某些美国政府的棉花补贴计划是最新的事件在一个为期五年的入世进程。 The report is expected to be officially released to other WTO members about October 1.该报告预计将正式发布世贸组织其他成员对10月1日。 In August of 2006 Brazil had requested the compliance panel because it believed that the US had not fully complied with the March 2005 ruling that US domestic programs disadvantaged growers in other countries. 2006年8月巴西曾要求遵守面板，因为它认为美国没有充分遵守2005年3月的裁决，美国国内处境不利的种植者计划在其他国家。
The process began in September 2002 when Brazil asked for consultations with the US concerning the impact of domestic programs for cotton.这一进程始于2002年9月在巴西进行磋商要求与美国就影响国内棉花的程序。 A WTO dispute resolution panel was established in March 2003 that led to the March 2005 ruling.世贸组织一个争端解决小组成立于2003年3月，导致2005年3月的裁决。 The dispute process will likely end in February or March of 2008 when the US either agrees to fully implement the ruling or Brazil requests authorization from the WTO to apply trade sanctions.争端的过程中可能会最终在2月或3月， 2008年时，美国要么同意全面执行裁决或巴西的请求授权的情况下适用世贸组织的贸易制裁。 Also, in mid-July Brazil filed a new WTO case alleging that total US payments for all domestic agricultural support programs have exceeded WTO commitments.此外，在7月中旬，巴西提出了新的WTO案件，声称美国支付总额为所有国内农业支持项目已超过世贸组织的承诺。 That case will move through the WTO process on a separate track.这种情况下将通过世贸组织进程的一个单独的轨道。
The original ruling found that the US cotton Step 2 program was a prohibited export subsidy; the US ended that program effective August of 2006.原来的裁决认为，美国棉花第2步计划是一项禁止出口补贴，美国结束该程序有效2006年8月。 US agricultural export credit guarantee programs were also ruled to be export subsidies.美国农产品出口信贷担保项目，也排除是出口补贴。 That was expected to be resolved in a Doha Round agreement, but slow progress in the negotiations has held that up.这是有望得到解决在多哈回合谈判协议，但进展缓慢的谈判已举行的行动。 Payments under market price based programs were ruled to cause “serious prejudice” against producers in other countries and have “adverse affects.” No major action has been taken on this, but the recently passed House farm bill does modestly reduce the target price for cotton.下的付款市场价格为基础的程序被排除造成“严重损害”对生产者在其他国家和有“不利影响” 。没有重大已采取行动这一点，但众议院最近通过的农业法案，并适度减少的目标，棉花价格。 The ruling also implied that prohibiting planting of fruits and vegetables on base acres makes all of the direct payments subject to the current amber box limit of $19.1 billion per year.这项裁决还意味着，禁止种植的水果和蔬菜基地亩使所有的问题直接支付到目前琥珀框限制一百九十一亿美元左右。 No action has been taken on that issue.没有采取行动这一问题。
The arguments in the cotton case are based on market activity and domestic support programs of the late 1990s and 2000-2003.论点棉花案件是基于市场活动和国内支持计划的20世纪90年代末和2000-2003年。 Those are increasingly irrelevant in the current market conditions.这些都是越来越无关紧要在目前的市场条件。 US cotton acreage planted in 2007 is down 28 percent as producers planted more corn because of higher market prices.美国棉花种植面积在2007年下跌了百分之二十八作为生产者种植更多的玉米，因为较高的市场价格。 US cotton exports are down this marketing year and government payments to producers are declining.美国棉花出口下降了本市场年度和政府支付给生产者正在下降。 Strong arguments can be made that these market conditions will continue over the next few years.强有力的论据可以说，这些市场条件将继续在今后几年中。
The hope of the last few years was that a successful Doha Round agreement and a 2007 farm bill would allow negotiators to work out the cotton issues without continued litigation at the WTO.希望过去几年是一个成功的多哈回合协议和2007年农业法案将使谈判制定出的棉花问题，继续诉讼在世贸组织。 Since that is not happening, the WTO dispute resolutions process continues.从那时以来，情况并非如此，世贸组织的争端决议的过程仍在继续。 Options for the US are clear.选择美国是很清楚的。 The subsidies can be eliminated, reduced or de-linked from production (decoupled as direct payments or as conservation payments).补贴可以消除，减少或脱钩生产（脱钩的直接支付或养护费） 。 The US and Brazil can also negotiate compensatory payments to offset the adverse effects or Brazil can choose trade retaliation consistent with WTO rules.美国和巴西也可以进行谈判赔偿金，以抵消不利影响或巴西可以选择贸易报复符合世贸组织的规则。
As a promoter of more open trade and a rules-based trading system, the US should not simply run-out-the-clock and allow Brazil to choose trade retaliation.作为一个推动者更加开放的贸易和以规则为基础的贸易制度，美国不应仅仅运行了24小时，并允许选择巴西的贸易报复。 The ruling by the compliance panel is not a great surprise, and the US has between now and early next year to craft an effective response.执政的遵守小组不是一个巨大的惊喜，而美国已经从现在起到明年年初制定出一个有效的反应。 The WTO dispute resolution process is a backward looking process based on the conditions when the case was filed, and the US has to deal with the facts in the case as filed.世贸组织的争端解决程序是一个落后的寻找过程的条件时，诉讼是，美国必须处理与事实不符的情况作为存档。
Now is the time for the governments of the US and Brazil and the cotton industries in both countries to come to the table to negotiate a compromise based on the facts in the case with an eye toward the new market realities.现在是政府的美国和巴西的棉花产业在这两个国家来进行谈判桌上达成妥协的基础上的事实的情况下，着眼迈向新市场的现实。 As Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Tom Harkin (D-IA) said in a press release, “While, of course, the United States needs to defend our programs in the WTO, we also must recognize reality, solve the problems in our programs and move on.正如参议院农业委员会主席汤姆哈金（丁- IA ）的在一份新闻稿中说， “虽然，当然，美国需要保卫我们的节目在世界贸易组织，我们也必须承认的现实，解决问题的方案和举措关于。 It is far more important to prepare for the future so American agriculture can succeed in this new century than to continue fighting losing cases before the WTO.”这是更为重要的是为未来作准备，使美国农业能够取得成功在这一新的世纪，而不是失去继续战斗的情况下加入WTO之前。 “
The US does have a couple of conditions moving in its favor.美国确实有一对夫妇的条件在其移动有利。 First, the WTO process is slow and does not guarantee reforms at the end of the process.首先，世贸组织的进程是缓慢的，并不能保证改革的结束进程。 Just retaliating against other exports from the US to Brazil does not help cotton producers in Brazil and other countries.只要报复其他出口美国，巴西不利于棉花生产国巴西和其他国家。 Second, while the new market realities are not technically part of the cotton case, they will begin to influence thinking about the case as it drags on.其次，新的市场现实是不是技术上的一部分，棉花情况下，他们将开始影响思考的情况下，因为它拖累。
While the farm bill that recently passed the House is far from what other countries would like, the reality is that it will provide less support for cotton and other crops compared to the costs of producing those crops than provided under the 2002 farm bill.虽然农业法案，最近通过了众议院还远远没有什么其他国家希望，但现实是，它将提供支持较少的棉花和其他作物相比，生产成本比这些作物所提供的2002年农业法案。 As time goes by, it will be harder to make arguments about the trade distorting nature of US farm programs.随着时间的推移，这将是难以使争论扭曲贸易的性质，美国的农业计划。
All of US agriculture has a huge stake in finding a compromise on the cotton case within the WTO policy framework.所有的美国农业有巨大的股权，找到一个妥协的情况下，棉花在世贸组织内的政策框架。 How it is resolved will influence both the second Brazilian case and a similar case brought by Canada.它是如何解决双方将影响巴西的第二次案件和一个类似的案件所带来的加拿大。 Also, non-agriculture industries in the US are growing increasingly impatient with agriculture blocking progress in the Doha Round.此外，非农业产业在美国越来越不耐烦农业阻断进展多哈回合谈判。 The recent decision in the House to tax businesses to find funds to pass the 2007 farm bill has added fuel to that fire.最近决定在众议院税务企业寻找资金通过了2007年农业法案增加了燃料的火。 Now is the time for US agriculture to control the agenda or allow someone else to fashion a deal.现在是美国控制农业的议程，或允许别人来塑造一个协议。
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