| The Falconer Draft – the Doha Glass Will Never Fill Up草案的鹰-多哈玻璃将永远填补 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Thursday, 19 July 2007星期四， 2007年7月19 |
On July 17th Crawford Falconer, Chairman of the Committee on Agriculture of the Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations, released a draft of possible modalities for agriculture. 7月17日在克劳福德福尔克纳主席，农业委员会多哈回合谈判的世贸组织贸易谈判中，公布了一份可能的方式用于农业。 The Chairman of the Committee on Non Agriculture Market Access (NAMA) also released a draft text of his committee’s work.该委员会主席关于非农业市场准入（ NAMA ）也公布了草案文本，他委员会的工作。 The US Trade Representative’s (USTR) office noted in a statement that, “the Chairs’ issuance of draft texts at this stage is a single step in a longer term process” to establish the detailed negotiating framework for the final stage of the talks.美国贸易代表部（ USTR ）办公室指出在一份声明中说， “主席的发放草案文本在这个阶段是一个单一的步骤较长期的过程” ，建立详细的谈判框架的最后阶段谈判。
The next step will be meetings in Geneva the week of July 23 to exchange reactions to the text and find ways to move forward.下一步将是在日内瓦举行的会议一周的7月23日至交换反应的案文，并设法向前推进。 Revised drafts will be developed as needed based on comments from WTO members.修订草案将制定必要的意见的基础上从世贸组织成员。 The agricultural draft is not a complete text in that items like tariff escalation, special products, special safeguard mechanisms and preference erosion have not moved enough toward consensus for Falconer to write specific language.农业草案并不是一个完整的文字在这项目，如关税升级，特殊产品，特殊保障机制和优惠侵蚀没有取得足够的共识，福尔克纳写具体的语言。 These issues are less important to most US participants, but of major importance to other members, particularly in developing countries.这些问题是同样重要的是美国的与会者，而且具有重大意义的其他成员，特别是在发展中国家。 The draft also contains bracketed numbers for percentage reductions in tariffs and domestic supports which mean negotiators have narrowed their differences, but have not reached consensus.该草案还包含括号内的数字为百分比削减关税和国内支持，这意味着谈判人员已经缩小了分歧，但尚未达成了共识。 The biggest benefit of the draft is that it provides a comprehensive view of the agricultural discussions from someone who is familiar with the positions of the many groups involved in the talks.最大的好处草案的是，它提供了一个全面的看法，讨论了农业从别人谁是熟悉的立场，许多团体参与了会谈。
Domestic supports and the formulas for tariff reductions are of most interest to US farmers and ranchers and among the more settled issues.国内支持和公式削减关税是最感兴趣的美国农民和农场主之间以及更多的解决问题。 A base level of Overall Trade-Distorting Domestic Support for each country will be established by adding together the final bound Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) from the Uruguay Agreement, 10 percent of the value of production of agricultural products in the 1995-2000 base period and the higher of existing average blue box payments or 5 percent of the average value of production for 1995-2000.基本水平总体贸易扭曲的国内支持对每个国家将成立由加在一起的最后时限骨料的支持（医疗辅助队）从乌拉圭协定，百分之十的价值农产品生产在1995-2000年的基数期间，现有的高平均蓝色方块付款或百分之五的平均产值为1995-2000年。 The US is in a mid-level country category of $10 billion to $60 billion per year where support would have to be reduced by 66-73 percent.美国是一个中级的国家一类100亿美元至600亿美元，每年的支持就必须减少百分之66-73 。 This would provide a hard cap for the amber box and blue box.这将提供一个硬帽的黄箱和蓝箱。 Reports put the overall cap at $13.0-$16.4 billion per year when fully implemented.报告提出的总体上限在十三点〇美元- 164亿美元，每年在充分执行。
Within the Overall Trade-Distorting Domestic Support, the Final Bound Total AMS of the amber box for the US would be reduced by a proposed 60 percent because the US fits in a mid category of AMS of $15 billion to $40 billion per year.在总体贸易扭曲的国内支持，最后束缚共计医疗辅助队的琥珀中，美国将减少拟议的百分之六十，因为美国在一个适合中期类医疗辅助队的150亿美元至40亿美元。 That would reduce the US AMS from $19.1 billion per year to $7.6 billion.这将减少美国的医疗辅助队从1910000万美元每年76亿美元。 The draft text has product-specific AMS caps based on the total AMS for 1995-2000 and the 1995-2004 distribution of AMS among products for the US草案文本已特定产品的医疗辅助队帽子的基础上的总医疗辅助队为1995-2000年和1995-2004年分配的医疗辅助队之间的产品为美国
The tiered formula for reductions in bound ad valorem equivalent agricultural tariffs for developed countries is a 48-52 percent reduction for tariffs of 0-20 percent, 55-60 percent for tariffs of 20-50 percent, 62-65 percent for tariffs of 50-75 percent and 66-73 percent for tariffs of greater than 75 percent.在分层公式削减的约束从价税等值的农产品关税，发达国家是48-52减少百分之关税百分之0-20 ， 55-60百分之关税百分之20-50 ， 62-65关税百分之50百分之-75和66-73关税百分之大于百分之七十五。 Developing countries would make two-thirds of the reductions made by developed countries with wider bands that go up to tariffs of 130 percent.发展中国家将有三分之二的削减发达国家与更广泛的乐队去了关税的1.3倍。 These reductions would be less for sensitive products from developed countries and sensitive and special products from developing countries.这些削减将减少对敏感产品从发达国家和敏感和特殊产品来自发展中国家。
As expected, cotton would have more rapid and greater reductions in trade-distorting domestic subsidies and tariffs compared to other commodities.正如预期的那样，棉花将有更迅速和更大幅度地削减扭曲贸易的国内补贴和关税相比，其他商品。 This has been an issue since 2003 and pushed by West African cotton producing countries.这是一个问题，自2003年以来推行的西非棉花生产国。
Based on actions to date, from the US point of view the Doha glass will likely never fill up.基于行动的日期，从美国的角度来看，多哈玻璃可能会永远弥补。 The Bush Administration set an aggressive agricultural tariff reduction agenda at the start of the talks in 2001 and has held to that position since then.布什政府树立了一个积极的削减农业关税议程开始时的会谈，并在2001年举行了这一立场至今。 That was the correct economic approach since reducing tariff rates is a fundamental part of opening markets in the multilateral negotiations.这是正确的经济办法，因为降低关税税率是一个基本组成部分开放市场中的多边谈判。 The Falconer draft makes clear that tariff reductions will be less than the US goal.该福尔克纳草案明确指出，削减关税将低于美国的目标。 That has been true for at least the last two years, and discussions for the next two years are not likely to change the outcome.这一直是如此，至少在过去的两年中，并讨论今后两年也不可能改变结果。
The Bush Administration and agricultural interest groups have linked reductions in trade-distorting US domestic supports to major expansion of market access in other countries.布什政府和农业利益集团有联系减少扭曲贸易的国内支持美国的主要扩大市场准入的其他国家。 Most of the other members of the WTO have not bought into that basic linking, and many members have taken an exactly opposite view.大多数其他世贸组织成员都没有买成，基本的联系，许多成员都采取了完全相反的意见。 The three boxes or categories of domestic supports established in the Uruguay Agreement and the caps in the amber and blue box programs were to be the first installments of continued reductions in outlays for those programs because they have already been established as trade distorting.这三个箱子或类别的国内支持设在乌拉圭协定和帽子的琥珀色和蓝色方块项目，成为第一个分期付款的继续削减支出为这些程序，因为他们已经建立了贸易扭曲。 Based on the Falconer text, the US appears to have lost ground on that issue as an overall cap on trade-distorting domestic supports and product specific AMS caps have become part of the text.基于福尔克纳文本，美国似乎已失去了地面就这个问题作为一个总体上限贸易扭曲的国内支持和产品的具体医疗辅助队帽子已成为部分文字。
The US negotiators, leaders of the Bush Administration and members of the House and Senate with an interest in agricultural issues have difficult choices in the weeks ahead.美国谈判代表，领导人和布什政府成员的众议院和参议院有兴趣在农业问题已艰难的选择在今后几周。 They can hold onto their original arguments and the Doha talks will fail, or they can try to find a new point in the policy options that will make substantive progress in market access while protecting some level of trade-distorting domestic subsidies.他们可以守住原来的论点和多哈回合谈判将失败，也可以尝试找到一个新的起点的政策选择，将取得实质性进展的市场准入，同时保护某种程度的扭曲贸易的国内补贴。 These choices are further complicated by the growing belief that comprehensive rounds of WTO trade policy talks are part of the past and not of the future.这些选择进一步复杂化了越来越相信，全面的两轮世贸组织贸易政策谈判的一部分，而不是过去的未来。 If this is the last chance to achieve a broad agreement across a wide range of issues that impact all members of the WTO, then the questions are what can be achieved in a broader agreement and what can better be done in whatever format replaces the broad rounds?如果这是最后的机会，实现一个广泛的协议在广泛的问题，影响所有世贸组织成员，那么什么问题都可以实现在更广泛的协议和如何更好地做到在任何形式取代了广泛轮？ Is the increased market access in the agriculture agreement enough to produce support for the final agreement?是增加市场准入中的农业协议，以生产足够的支持，最后的协议？
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