| Bilateral and Multilateral Trade Agreements in the Post Doha Era双边和多边贸易协定后多哈时代 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Thursday, 12 July 2007星期四， 07年7月12日 |
Press reports that Japan is interested in a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States in response to the US-Korea FTA have again raised concerns about the effectiveness of bilateral agreements in moving toward freer world trade.据新闻报道，日本是有兴趣在一个自由贸易协定（ FTA ）与美国在应对韩美自由贸易协定再一次引发了人们担心的有效性双边协定中走向自由的世界贸易。 As the Doha Round of WTO trade policy negotiations continues to drag on, discussions about FTAs have become even more important.作为多哈回合的世贸组织贸易政策的谈判继续下去，讨论自由贸易协议已变得更加重要。 The issue is not whether bilateral or multilateral agreements are better, but how they can work together in a world that needs continued efforts to remove trade barriers.问题不在于是否双边或多边协定的更好，但他们如何能够共同努力，在当今世界，需要继续努力消除贸易壁垒。
Japan has short-term, practical interests in a FTA with the US and longer-term, strategic economic issues.日本短期实际利益，在一个自由贸易协定与美国和较长期的，战略性的经济问题。 Electronics and automobiles from Korea will enter the US duty free while Japanese products will continue to face tariffs of 5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.电子和汽车从韩国将进入美国免税，而日本产品将继续面临关税百分之五和百分之二点五，分别。 Both countries have modern industries and tariffs could make the difference in head-to-head competition.这两个国家都现代工业和关税可以使不同的白刃战，竞争。 Japan’s longer-term issues are an aging population and high food costs under its existing import restrictions.日本的长期问题是人口老龄化和高食品价格根据其现有的进口限制。 The fact that Japan would even consider an FTA with a major agricultural exporter like the US is an indication it is serious about rethinking its economic and trade policies in light of limited opportunities in multilateral negotiations.事实上，日本甚至考虑自由贸易协定的主要农产品出口国如美国，这表明它是认真的反思其经济和贸易政策根据机会有限，在多边谈判中。 Japan has started FTA negotiations with Australia, and farm lobbies have intensified their opposition to all FTAs.日本已开始自由贸易协定谈判，澳大利亚，和农业游说团体已加紧反对一切自由贸易协定。
One of the advantages of bilateral agreements is that countries can choose when to enter into agreements.的好处之一是双边协议的国家可以选择何时签订协议。 The US and Canada were ready to start the FTA process in the mid-1980s.美国和加拿大已准备启动自由贸易区进程， 20世纪80年代中期。 Mexico followed a few years later and the US-Canada FTA was folded into NAFTA.墨西哥随后几年后美国和加拿大自由贸易协定是并入北美自由贸易协定。 CAFTA-DR was negotiated in 2004-05 when the US and the other countries decided there were economic and foreign policy benefits.中美洲自由贸易协定，谈判的议员在2004-05年时，美国和其他国家的决定有经济和外交政策的好处。 A US-Korea FTA would not have been doable 10 years ago.阿韩美自由贸易协定本来是可以做到10年前。 The EU and the MERCUSOR countries of South America are negotiating again after a several year break.欧盟和MERCUSOR南美洲国家正在谈判后再度打破了一年。 Countries can use natural synergies like geographic proximity or complementary industries to gain economic efficiencies that are country specific.国家可以利用自然的协同作用就像在地理上接近或互补的产业获得经济效率，是特定国家的。
The ability to choose to not pursue FTAs is also one of the major short comings of bilateral FTAs.能够选择不追求自由贸易协定，也是主要的短期往来的双边自由贸易协定。 Industries protected by tariffs and other import restrictions can exert great political pressure to prevent even planning to negotiate an FTA.产业保护关税和其他进口限制能发挥巨大的政治压力，以防止甚至规划进行谈判自由贸易协定。 The breadth and depth of the WTO agreements are powerful enough to get most countries and industries involved in the negotiations to avoid not having their voices heard.的广度和深度世贸组织协定是强大的足以让大多数国家和行业参与谈判，以避免没有听到他们的声音。 An agreement applies equally to all members of the WTO and lets market forces determine trading patterns.协议同样适用于所有世贸组织成员，并让市场力量决定的贸易格局。 Countries with little in common are part of the same rules-based trading system.很少的国家在共同属于同一规则为基础的贸易制度。 Issues like trade distorting domestic subsidies are also best handled when all countries are bound to the outcomes.问题，如扭曲贸易的国内补贴，也最好处理时，所有国家都必然结果。
If the current WTO negotiating process remains bogged down, countries will increasingly explore bilateral or regional agreements to move their trade agendas forward.如果目前的世贸组织谈判进程仍陷于僵局，国家将越来越多地探讨双边或区域协定，将其贸易议程前进。 Relying solely on bilateral and regional agreements would be a mistake because they do not move all countries along at some minimal pace toward freer trade under a common set of rules.仅仅依靠双边和区域协定将是一个错误，因为他们没有将所有沿线各国在一些起码的步伐走向自由贸易下一套共同的规则。 The multilateral process needs to seek other ways to negotiate towards more open markets.多边进程的需要，寻求其他途径进行谈判，更开放的市场。
Some groups are already thinking about what happens next with or without a Doha agreement.一些团体已经在思考未来会发生什么或不多哈协议。 The consulting group Oxford Analytica in a June 19 analysis identified six factors most often connected with the problems of the Doha Round: too many subjects, too many participants, consensus rule, most-favored nation principle, north-south differences and lack of political leadership at the national level.该咨询小组牛津分析在6月19日的分析确定了六个因素往往是与该问题的多哈回合：太多的问题，也许多与会者认为，协商一致的规则，最惠国待遇原则，南北差异和缺乏政治领导在国家一级。 A new negotiating process would need to address at least some of these concerns.一种新的谈判过程将需要至少解决其中一些问题。
An April 2007 policy paper on the new global economy from the Atlantic Council of the US stated that “the WTO must be preserved and strengthened as a major institution in the management of the global economy.” The paper followed up with a blunt assessment, “No matter its final outcome, the Doha Round has demonstrated that the era of the traditional trade round is over…In a significant paradigm shift, it is unlikely that the Doha Round will be followed by a similar Round anytime in the near future.” After the Doha Round is concluded, the authors suggest that the US and the EU lead a set of negotiating efforts for further trade opening within the WTO context. 2007年4月的一个政策文件，在新的全球经济从大西洋理事会，美国指出， “世贸组织必须得到维护和加强作为一个主要的机构在管理全球经济。 ”文件之后，一种生硬的评估， “不管其最后结果，多哈回合已经证明，时代的传统的贸易谈判已经结束...在一个重大的模式转变，这是不可能的多哈回合之后将随时类似回合在不久的将来。 “之后多哈回合谈判结束，作者认为美国和欧盟导致了一系列的谈判努力，进一步的贸易开放在世贸组织的范围内。 This would be a form of “variable geometry”, a new buzz phrase that refers to different groups of countries involved in various trade opening efforts based on their interests and capabilities.这将是一种形式的“可变几何” ，一个新的信号词组，是指不同的国家集团参与各种贸易开放的基础上努力，他们的利益和能力。 The paper also calls for bilateral and regional trade agreements to not erode the authority and rules of the WTO.该文件还呼吁双边和区域贸易协定不会削弱的权威和WTO规则。
A logical approach is to move away from comprehensive negotiations that involve all industries, all types of trade distortions and all countries.一个合乎逻辑的做法是脱离全面的谈判，涉及所有行业，所有类型的贸易扭曲和所有国家。 The comprehensive approach worked well when a few dozen countries were involved in talks centered mainly on industrial goods.全面行之有效的办法时，几十个国家参与谈判主要集中于工业产品。 An industry-by-industry approach may force countries to decide to protect their companies in an industry at the expense of being left behind as capital and technology seek out the best market opportunities.一个行业的工业做法可能迫使各国决定，以保护他们的公司在业界以牺牲被抛在后面的资本和技术寻求最佳的市场机会。 The single industry approach also would avoid countries having to accept a bad agreement in one industry to get a good agreement in another industry.单一产业的做法也将避免国家不得不接受一个坏协议，一个行业要取得好协议的另一个行业。 This may work better in fast growing new industries like semiconductors than in older industries like steel.这可能更好地工作在快速增长的新的半导体行业较旧钢铁等行业。
The post Doha era of WTO trade agreements appears to have already arrived.后时代的多哈世贸组织贸易协定似乎已经抵达。 Bilateral and regional FTAs have the upper hand unless the WTO trade policy negotiations process can reinvent itself to be more relevant to twenty first century trade issues.双边和区域自由贸易协定已占上风，除非世贸组织贸易政策的谈判进程可以重塑自己是更切合二十一世纪的贸易问题。 Those trade policy participants most critical of bilateral and regional FTAs need to lead the reforms in the WTO to ensure that the multilateral trade policy process fulfills its vital role.这些参与者的贸易政策最重要的双边和区域自由贸易协定必须带头改革，加入WTO ，以确保多边贸易政策的过程中履行其重要的作用。
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