| Another Look at the Doha Round再看看在多哈回合谈判 |  |  |  |
| Posted by Ross Korves 发布者罗斯Korves |
| Thursday, 01 February 2007星期四， 2007年2月1日 |
The announcement by Pascal Lamy, Director-General of the WTO, that the Trade Ministers of the 150 member nations backed a full resumption of the Doha Round of WTO trade talks ends a six month suspension of the talks.宣布拉米总干事世贸组织，贸易部长会议150个成员国家支持全面恢复多哈回合谈判的世贸组织贸易谈判结束了6个月暂停了会谈。 The challenge now is to break the logjam over agricultural issues.现在的挑战是打破僵局的农业问题。
When the negotiations stalled out last summer, it was generally agreed that talks would not resume without a new political commitment from key countries and industrial business leaders willing to offset the influence of farm lobbies.当谈判陷入僵局的去年夏天，人们普遍同意，会谈将不会恢复一个新的政治承诺，从主要国家和工业企业领导人愿意来抵消影响的农业游说。 President Bush is again pushing more open trade without having to protect a Republican majority in the House and Senate.美国总统布什再次推动更加开放的贸易，而不必为了保护共和党占多数的众议院和参议院。 Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, is a supporter of an agreement and now holds the rotating six-month presidency of the EU and is the leader of the G8 meeting in Germany next summer.默克尔，施罗德的德国，是一个支持者的一项协议，现在轮值6个月的主席和欧盟的领导人的八国会议在德国明年夏天。 The reelected President Lula da Silva of Brazil has again been vocal about the need to move the Doha talks ahead.在连任总统卢拉达席尔瓦，巴西再次发声的需要，推动多哈回合谈判未来。
Business leaders are also engaged.企业领导人也参与。 It is not a coincidence that President Bush recently talked about trade at Caterpillar in Peoria, Illinois; half of their production moves into export markets.这不是一个巧合的是，布什总统最近谈到贸易卡特彼勒在皮奥里亚，伊利诺斯州;一半的产量进入出口市场。 Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson who came from Wall Street is taking a larger role in the talks.财政部长亨利保尔森谁来自华尔街正在发挥更大的作用了会谈。 That 30 trade ministers attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland is an indication that trade policy is working in a much bigger policy circle than a year ago.这30个贸易部长出席了达沃斯世界经济论坛，瑞士是一个迹象表明，贸易政策是在一个更大的政策圈子，比去年同期。
The approach to negotiations has also changed.该办法的谈判也发生了变化。 As USTR Susan Schwab recently explained, before the July suspension of talks there was a lot of effort put in by the G6 (the EU, US, Brazil, India, Japan and Australia) to work out a grand design that other countries could plug into.正如美国贸易代表施瓦布最近解释说， 7月之前，暂停会谈有很多努力建立的第六代（欧盟，美国，巴西，印度，日本和澳大利亚） ，以制定出一个宏伟的设计，其他国家可以插入。 The US offered a bold agricultural proposal in the fall of 2005 that was supposed to cause a leap forward in the negotiations.美国提供了一个大胆的农业提案， 2005年秋季这理应引起的飞跃谈判。 Negotiators were seeking “top line” numbers that could then be worked back to each country.谈判代表正在寻求“最高线”号码就可以工作到每一个国家。 A few days after the talks broke off last July, Ambassador Schwab met with Brazil’s Minister Amorin in Rio de Janeiro to talk one-on-one about issues of mutual concern.几天后的会谈中断去年7月，施瓦布大使会见了巴西的部长阿莫林在里约热内卢交谈一对一对共同关心的问题。 That led to quiet bilateral and small group meetings around the world at all levels from trade ministers to technical experts focused on key sensitivities and priorities to build understanding of common ground.这导致安静的双边和小团体的会议在世界各地各级从贸易部长会议技术专家重点放在关键的敏感和优先目标，以建立理解的共同点。 The hope is to reengineer from the bottom up to create a top line that reflects the combined thinking of the 150 countries in the WTO.他们希望再造自下而上建立一个顶线，反映了联合思想的150个国家在世界贸易组织。 Lamy confirmed that process by saying the process would be bottom-up, inclusive and transparent, but continue to allow for “more discreet, informal, or bilateral, discussions."拉米证实说进程的进程将是自下而上的，包容和透明的，但继续允许“更为隐蔽的，非正式的或双边的讨论。 ”
The focus on bilateral and small group discussions does not mean that top line numbers have entirely disappeared.重点就双边关系和小团体的讨论并不意味着顶线人数已完全消失。 The latest plan is the “17 & 54” plan.最新的计划是“ 17 ＆ 54 ”计划。 The US would limit amber box, de minimis and blue box spending to no more than $17 billion per year, down from some interpretations that put the US limit under the October 2005 proposal at $22 billion.美国将限制黄箱，微量和蓝色方块支出不超过170亿美元，每年从一些解释，把美国的限制下， 2005年10月建议在220亿美元。 The 54 is the average percent cut in EU agricultural tariffs in the proposal by the G20 group of developing countries. 54的平均百分之欧盟削减农业关税的建议， 20国集团的发展中国家。 The US has already pointed out that the average 54 percent cut has no meaning until decisions on which products will have the greatest tariff reductions and which will be declared sensitive with much smaller cuts.美国已经指出，平均削减百分之五十四已经没有任何意义，直到决定哪些产品将有最大的关税削减，并宣布将与敏感小得多削减。 Hopefully the bottom up process can sort out the sensitive products before talking about the average tariff reduction.希望自下而上的过程可以理清敏感产品前谈论的平均关税削减。
The ongoing talks have reenergized some issues like having no or very low tariffs on environmental goods that improve the environment and should be freely traded.正在进行的会谈有reenergized一些问题，如没有或很低的关税，环保产品，改善环境，应该自由买卖。 The EU and some other countries want biofuels to be on that list.欧盟和其他一些国家希望将生物燃料在该名单。 Brazil has supported zero tariffs on ethanol by suggesting that it be treated like a petroleum product.巴西一直支持零关税对乙醇的建议，它被当作石油产品。
The decision by the Canadian government to request consultations on the US corn program is also designed to move the talks along.该决定由加拿大政府，要求磋商的美国玉米计划还旨在推动谈判的。 Even though the case does not appear to be particularly strong, Canada has been joined by a diverse group of countries from Guatemala and Brazil to Thailand and the EU.即使案件似乎并不特别强烈，加拿大已经加入了一个多样化的国家集团由危地马拉和巴西到泰国和欧盟。
The farm bill proposals released by the Bush Administration can play a role in the talks.该农业法案的建议公布的布什政府可以发挥作用了会谈。 Secretary Johanns has said repeatedly that one goal is a farm bill that is beyond challenge in the WTO.约翰斯秘书长一再表示，目标之一是一个农业法案，这是以后的挑战，世界贸易组织。 Their proposals are a step toward that goal.他们的建议是向着这一目标。 The initial EU reaction was that the Administration had not done enough to lower government payments.欧盟最初的反应是，政府没有采取足够措施来降低政府支付。 The dairy and sugar programs were mentioned as problems, but those programs have not been major sticking points on a new agreement.奶制品和糖的计划中提到的问题，但这些计划还没有主要的症结点，一个新的协议。 The cotton loan rate would be reduced which would reduce loan deficiency payments that are tied to market prices.棉花贷款利率将减至这将减少贷款支付不足是挂钩的市场价格。 Planting restrictions on fruits and vegetables on farm program acreage would also be eliminated as suggested in the Brazilian cotton case.限制种植水果和蔬菜农场计划种植面积也将被淘汰的建议在巴西棉花案件。 More funds would be directed to conservation programs that are non-trade distorting.更多的资金将用于保护程序，非贸易扭曲。
President Bush’s call for extension of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) beyond its current July 1 expiration shows the Administration is serious in seeking middle ground on trade that would garner support for both TPA and a final WTO agreement.美国总统布什的呼吁延长贸易促进权（ TPA ）超越其目前的7月1日到期表明政府是认真的，寻求中间立场的贸易将得到支持为对苯二甲酸和加入WTO的最后协议。 House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-NY) is willing to work with President Bush in finding a new bipartisan consensus.众议院筹款委员会主席查尔斯兰格（丁- NY ）的愿意与布什总统在寻找一个新的两党共识。 He seeks to offset some of the pain that industries and workers feel when globalization forces fundamental changes.他要求，以抵消一些痛苦的行业和工人的感觉时，全球化的力量根本的变化。 Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) has called for a globalization adjustment assistance package that would include service industry workers.美国参议院财政委员会主席鲍卡斯（丁-吨）已要求调整全球化的一揽子援助计划，其中将包括服务行业工人。
Agriculture does not control the agenda for restarted Doha talks.农业不控制的议程重新启动多哈回合谈判。 That is now controlled by political leaders from key developed and developing countries and business groups that have become increasingly impatient with agriculture’s lukewarm interest in trade expansion.这是目前所控制的政治领导人从主要发达国家和发展中国家的业务集团，已成为越来越不耐烦与农业的不冷不热的兴趣扩大贸易。 Agricultural groups will need to recalculate how they can fit into the agenda for more open trade.农业团体将需要重新计算他们如何能够融入议程更加开放的贸易。
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