China is no newcomer to the biotech-crop club--only four countries plant more acres of GM crops than the world’s most populous nation. Yet government leaders in Beijing are on the verge of a decision that historians eventually may interpret as a tipping point in the global debate over genetically modified food.
A “tipping point” is the dramatic moment when something unique or rare becomes utterly common. The term has academic origins, but it gained enormous popular attention a few years ago, upon the publication of Malcolm Gladwell’s best-selling book, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference.
I’ve argued that when it comes to biotech crops, we passed the tipping point long ago. My own favorite metaphor has involved the genie and the bottle--the biotech genie is out of the bottle, and nobody will ever coax him back in. The bottom line is that with well more than a billion acres of GM crops now having been planted and harvested, this agricultural technology is here to stay.
And that fact will become irreversibly true when China approves the commercial sale of GM rice. One recent report suggests that regulators may not approve commercial sales of the rice this year, but it’s only a matter of time before they do.
Anybody who has ever eaten Chinese food knows how important rice is to the Chinese diet--it’s the most basic and popular food in the world’s biggest country. How’s that for a tipping point?
As it happens, biotech rice is already a fact of life in China. The government has researched and tested it, the way governments do before they approve a product for the marketplace. But it’s also seeping into commercial use: Earlier this month, anti-biotech activists at Greenpeace said they that had purchased several bags of rice, tested them for biotech, and received positive results.
I don’t trust much of what Greenpeace says, but in this case their finding seems plausible. It wouldn’t be the first time biotech crops have gained a foothold in a country before they were formally approved for planting. That’s what happened a few years ago in Brazil, which shares a border with Argentina, one of the world’s leading producers of biotech soybeans.
Brazilian farmers decided that they wanted to take advantage of biotechnology--higher yields, lower costs--just as their neighbors in Argentina did. So they started smuggling seeds across the border. Brazil eventually approved biotech soybeans, but its decision came in the wake of decisions that farmers already had been making for themselves.
It’s not clear exactly how biotechnology moved from field tests to commercial paddies in China, or precisely how widespread GM rice has become there. No matter what the details, it doesn’t take the wisdom of Confucius to understand the motives of Chinese farmers.
A recent study by a team of Chinese and American scientists revealed that the use of biotech rice reduced pesticide costs by 80 percent. “We estimate that if 90 percent of the farmers plant GM rice, then the annual agricultural income of China will increase by $4 billion,” said Huang Jukun, director of the Agriculture Policy Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
That’s a lot of cash, even in a country that has more than a billion mouths to feed. Government leaders, which recently have promised to improve the economic health of rural China - where a lot of rice is grown - are certain to take note.
What’s more, they have nothing to fear from biotechnology and they know it. They’ve been living with it for years, and now they’re even importing it from the United States: The first cargo of American-grown GM corn is reaching Chinese docks right now.
Around the world, GM crops are becoming more popular. No country that has allowed access to this technology has subsequently turned its back on biotech, in what we might label an “untipping point.” To be sure, a number of European nations continue to hold out against GMOs. Yet they are becoming increasingly isolated, and China’s forthcoming decision will highlight their detachment.
You certainly don’t need to crack open a fortune cookie to predict the future of rice farming in China: Farmers want it, and they will get it.
Dean Kleckner chairs Truth About Trade and Technology (www.truthabouttrade.org). He is an Iowa farmer and past president of the American Farm Bureau.
Recieve the latest news and commentary from Truth About Trade & Technology in your inbox every Friday with our newsletter subscription service.
Subscribing is easy and free, simply fill out th form below and you subscription will begin immediately. We protect your privacy, your e-mail address will never be sold or redistributed and you can unsubscribe at any time.
News 
China is no newcomer to the biotech-crop club--only four countries plant more acres of GM crops than the world’s most populous nation. Yet government leaders in Beijing are on the verge of a decision that historians eventually may interpret as a tipping point in the global debate over genetically modified food.
