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Interest Continues In Transgenic Wheat |
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Posted by Truth About Trade & Technology
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
Ag Weekly
By: Cindy Snyder
Original Publish Date: August 29, 2008
TWIN FALLS, Idaho - World wheat consumption has exceeded world wheat production seven of the last 10 years.
Drought last year in several key wheat-producing regions exacerbated the net 102 million metric ton gap and sent wheat prices skyrocketing. And that’s got companies, governments and countries taking another look at transgenic wheat.
Monsanto pledged earlier this summer to develop seeds that would double the yields of corn, soybeans and cotton by 2030. Monsanto also said it would donate $10 million over five years to public-sector programs aimed at improving yields of wheat and rice, which are not a primary focus of the company’s efforts. Much of the breeding of those two food staples are performed by governments and universities.
World wheat consumption has been growing by about 1 percent per year for the last 20 years. Production has grown only 0.8 percent annually over the same time frame. In comparison, global corn production has increased 2.3 percent annually over the last two decades, thanks largely to the use of transgenic corn hybrids. Better yields and lower production costs associated with growing transgenic corn have made it more profitable and more adaptable, and growers worldwide are responding by planting more corn and less wheat. World wheat acreage has fallen 6 percent while corn acreage is up 12 percent.
The world wheat situation is clearly not sustainable, said John Oades, director of the U.S. Wheat Associates Portland office. One answer is for wheat prices to rise to encourage more production. That’s exactly how the market responded to last year’s incredibly tight supplies, and both millers and consumers felt the pinch of higher prices.
Reducing consumption is the other way to bring supply and demand back into balance.
“Your buyers are not at all interested in that, they’re in the business of milling your wheat,” he told growers at a grain conference late last year. “Transgenic wheat seems inevitable. It’s likely to come forward to reduce production costs and increase supply.”
Even so, getting transgenic wheat to market is not going to be easy.
Governments in the major wheat-producing countries are doing research on transgenic wheat, Oades said.
“No one is interested in being behind once someone releases something and takes the heat for it,” he said.
Major importing countries, such as Japan, are also doing research on transgenic wheat.
But one of the stumbling blocks is a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg conundrum. Getting consumer acceptance of the technology is easier if the transgenic trait is an output trait - something that benefits the end user. But unless growers can see a benefit in their field, they’re not likely to plant transgenic wheat.
“It has to work for you guys first,” Oades said. “It has to work for the guy that takes the first risk. But the quicker we can get to the output traits, the less resistance we will have down the road.”
That said, Oades said research going on regarding two different traits might provide benefits for both producers and consumers. For example, Australia is focusing on drought tolerance in its transgenic wheat research. Given the short wheat supplies, and continued questions about the size of the 2008 wheat crop in Australia, one could argue that improved drought tolerance would benefit consumers by reducing supply disruptions.
In the U.S., one effort is to develop fusarium resistance in hard red spring wheat. Less disease means reduced production costs and increased yields for growers; but it also means less pesticide applied and higher quality wheat for end users.
But, he added, anytime production costs decrease and supply increases, price falls. Growers will need to be prepared for that.
“At the end of the day, transgenic wheat has to work for both producers and users,” Oades said. “Believe it or not, mutual benefit really sells.”
Oades also believes the U.S. wheat industry will eventually need transgenic wheat to remain a reliable supplier of wheat to the world market. The No. 1 crop in Kansas for the last three years hasn’t been wheat - it’s been corn. There are still more acres of wheat than corn in the leading wheat state, but more bushels of corn are produced than bushels of wheat, he said.
Just because there’s more interest, doesn’t mean transgenic wheat is going to be grown in southern Idaho fields any time soon.
“It’s a slow process,” said Travis Jones, executive director of the Idaho Grain Producers Association.
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