“There never was a time when, in my opinion, some way could not be found to prevent the drawing of the sword,” noted Ulysses S. Grant, the Civil War general and president. The trick, of course, is to find the way before it’s too late.
In the 21st century, it just might be trade. The writer Thomas L. Friedman has proposed the “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention”--the idea that countries with McDonald’s franchises don’t go to war with each other. It isn’t always true: In 1989, the United States invaded Panama. Yet small exceptions such as this tend to prove the larger rule. Nations that share close economic ties usually figure out ways to resolve their differences without turning to bloodshed.
They do this because trade increases the cost of war. Developing nations in particular have a strong incentive to remain conflict-free zones, so that they can participate in a global economy that creates jobs and prosperity. Our world may never be free of war, and the Golden Arches Theory surely will suffer challenges. Yet its lessons are more compelling than its flaws.
When we trade, we avoid fights--it’s far better to exchange goods and services than bullets and bombs.
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