During the first three days of 2008 here in Iowa, we’re going to experience a disharmonic convergence. On January 1, the North American Free Trade Agreement will be fully implemented, at long last. The few tariffs that remain in place between Canada, Mexico, and the United States will be eliminated like a standing row of corn at harvest time.
Dry beans are one of the commodities with a 15-year transition in NAFTA implementation even though they account for less than 1 percent of U.S. harvested crop acres and about 110,000 metric tons of yearly exports to Mexico. As with white corn, dry beans have been a traditional staple of the Mexican diet and are facing lower demand as diets become more diversified. Mexican production is about 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) per year by 300,000 farmers on 4 million acres. NAFTA has smoothed out shipments year to year, but U.S. exports to Mexico are only 7 percent of the market.
Just a year ago the Mexican corn market was in turmoil with sharply higher prices for corn tortillas, a staple of the diet at about 150 pounds per capita per year and a major food for many low income people. The market has stabilized since then and appears to be prepared for the ending on January 1, 2008 of the 15-year transition under NAFTA. Mexico is already a major importer of U.S. corn and volumes are expected to increase in 2008.
Have you finished shopping for Christmas yet? One of the reasons why the gift-buying season seems to last so long these days is that we purchase enough presents to fill a sleigh. And one of the reasons we can afford to buy so much is because of free trade.